Poll Shows Gray Leading Fenty, Especially Among Black Voters
A new day, a new poll. This one, by Clarus Research Group, gives D.C. Council Chairman and mayoral hopeful Vincent Gray a slight lead over Mayor Adrian Fenty. Overall, Gray leads Fenty 39 to 36 among Democratic voters, and 41 to 36 among those voters who are "very likely" to actually go out and vote.
The most interesting data is on race, which sums up what everyone pretty much already knew: white people love Fenty, black people love Gray.
Only 21 percent of white men, and 17 percent of white women polled support Gray, while only 19 percent of black men and 15 percent of black women support Fenty.
Things get worse for Fenty when he goes head to head with Gray without Leo Alexander, Sulaimon Brown and Ernest Johnson on the ballot. In that hypothetical, respondents to the poll gave Gray a 44 to 38 lead of all those polled, and a 46 to 38 points of likely voters. That 8 point lead matches what LL reported from another poll on Monday. (Except those people are on the ballot, so it's not clear why that matters.)
Clarus notes that Gray had only a 4 point lead over Fenty in a head-to-head poll taken in November 2009. But Fenty's approval rating has gone up from 41 percent in the November poll to a current 49 percent.
The takeaway from Clarus' point of view: "Voter turnout could well determine the winner of the mayoral primary. A high white turnout is clearly Fenty's best path to victory. Conversely, a high African American turnout is Gray's best path to winning the primary." Duh.
In the Council Chairman race, Kwame Brown polled 12 points higher than Vincent Orange in likely voters.
The poll talked to 501 registered Dems, and has a margin of error 4.4 percent.
Photo by Darrow Montgomery
9:34 am
Good-bye Fenty
9:43 am
I doubt that Fenty will lose this election because some people will not go out and vote on the 14th -- simple as that! As much as I think Marion Barry is a scum bag, he is a SKILLED politician -- he knows how to get the people to the polls to vote! If Gray wants to win this election, he needs to make sure people get out and vote!
9:49 am
Duh rah!!! The poll says that Gray is ahead amongst the black voters. Therefore, are white voters still on vacation... Will we have to wait for the OBX bumper sticker crew to return and put a damper in this poll. What is the error/rate of the latest poll.
It almost throws the notion of Grays "One City" mantra out the window. As a practical matter, the black voters will vote for Gray and the white voters will vote for Fenty. Yeah, we are one city alright!!!!
10:26 am
We really are a divided city. That wasn't caused by Fenty or Gray.
10:28 am
@Vacation:
Perhaps we can thank Fenty for that!!!!
11:27 am
If Fenty loses the primary, what is likelihood he will run as an independent in the general election in the hope of finding enough Republicans and independents to top a Gray majority among registered Dems?
12:10 pm
I will never cast a vote again for arrogant, vindictive, childish King Fenty. Once King Fenty is kicked/voted out of his Kingdom (Wilson Building), his loyal subject (puppet) Ward 4 D.C. Councilmember Muriel Bowser will be next in 2012. Good riddance to them both!
For the record, this D.C. voter votes regularly and I wouldn't miss this election. If I were to die before September 14th, 2010, I would come back from the grave to vote to make sure King Fenty doesn't remain in his Kingdom.
12:19 pm
A Ward 4 resident today, Minnie Green says in the Washington Post, King Fenty is a bonehead. This old lady is telling the truth about King Fenty.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/08/17/AR2010081705809.html
12:24 pm
So, without seeing the crosstabs and knowing how Hispanics, Asians, and the Eskimos are leaning, it looks like there are about an equal number of white and black Democratic voters in the District. Can that be right?
12:34 pm
This white D.C. voter is voting for D.C. Council Chair Vincent Gray to be mayor. I suspect more white D.C. voters will be voting for Gray instead of for Fenty. Fenty is to corrupt and his association with Ron Moten and giving millions of dollars to his fraternity brothers has turned off a lot of white D.C. voters. Mayor Adrian M. Fenty reminds me of the fomer corrupt mayor of Detroit, Kwame Kilpatrick.
1:01 pm
If the schools open flawlessly...then more people will vote for Fenty. How many more grand-openings and ribbon cuttings are scheduled until September 14?
@Jon Bon Jovi...remember Gray belongs to a fraternity too and he's also a member of the oldest frat in this city and that is Old-school Phi Old-dudes. Lawd knows...it is going to be hot-time in the city if Gray...wins. How many house parties, hand-dancing and I betcha' the Mayor's Inauguration parade will make its historical return. Has anyone check to see if the DC Chapter of AARP donated to Gray?
1:07 pm
This black, ward 4, female resident is voting for Gray. We need one mayor, who can read, speak and address the constituents of DC. We do not need 2 mayors: We don't need the one from New York in one ear telling the inarticulate, non-thinking mayor how to run a city. We also don't need a mayor who listens with the other ear that thug nation needs more money for whatever(because he can't articulate that) and that the frat bros need a raise. If mayoral control of DCPS is to continue, we need a mayor who can read test scores. This one still thinks that they have increased.
1:41 pm
Candycane1, amen to your comment.
Vacation, I detect age discrimination from you. I don't recall Vincent Gray giving contracts to his white fraternity brothers.
Fenty has discriminated against people 45 and up. He refuses to hire or employ people over 45, with the exception of Peter Nickles.
I not saying Vincent Gray is the greatest, but I believe he will make a better mayor than Fenty. Fenty was too young an inexperience. Let's face it, Mayor Fenty isn't that intelligent and I would love to see his grades from Oberlin College and Howard Law School.
1:44 pm
Vacation, what high school and college did Ron Moten attend?
1:47 pm
Fenty's support of Ron Moten has turned me off as a D.C. voter. Fenty acts one way when he's around uneducated blacks living in da hood and he acts another way when he's around educated wealthy white voters living in Ward 3 or other upscale neighborhoods. I would vote for Papa Smurf before I vote for Adrian Fenty.
4:54 pm
from candycane1---We also don’t need a mayor who listens with the other ear that thug nation needs more money for whatever(because he can’t articulate that)
THANK YOU FOR THAT! I can't STAND it when Moten or Fenty speak. And the fact that Fenty is totally admitting that he has no stats, invoices, PROOF for any work actually preformed by Moten and doesn't need them is unbelievable. TEN MILLION DOLLARS? And you don't need proof?
THIS is the guy running our city? No wonder he submits a budget he has no intentions of following. He has no idea.
On the new commercial... does he have EYEBROW MAKEUP on? FOR REAL???? Lolol and who knew his teeth were so messed up. I mean, not that it would influence my vote either way but WOW does he need braces or what? Does he know he can get invisable ones now? Lol I dont think the camera has ever been that close up to him before. WOW!
5:04 pm
@ Vaca... Im sure there will be more but I can verify one house party over here, and that soon after it's start time (when the winner is declared) it will turn into a BLOCK party (I'm sure) and then we'll be HAND dancing in the street!
But that's just on my block!
5:49 pm
Calling all Sorors to the floor. (DST)
Mayor Adrian Fenty refused to meet with our Soror, the 98 year old legendary Dr. Dorothy Height. She's the Chairperson of the Executive Committee of the Leadership Conference on Civil Rights, the largest civil rights organization in the USA. She was an honored guest and seated among the dignitaries at the inauguration of President Barack Obama on January 20, 2009. Dr. Height was a former national president of Delta Sigma Theta Sorority, Inc.
It's time for Adrian Fenty to go. Fenty showed disrespect to Soror Dr. Dorothy Height by refusing to meet with her twice. Fenty's disrespect shown to the late Soror Dorothy Height was a slap in the face to the black community in the District and around the United States. Many members in Delta Sigma Theta Sorority and the National Council of Negro Women registered to vote in the District of Columbia will never forget this.
Rest in peace Soror Dr. Dorothy Height; your work is done on this earth.
6:39 pm
Fenty is not telling the truth, he is notorious for paying get back. I don't believe anything he says when he disrespected Ms. Height I knew he doesn't have any respect for our seniors or anyone whom he feels is not worthy of hizzoner. He doesn't respect the police, teachers or anyone else. He failed to understand that we pay him not the other way around remember my fellow citizens when you think of Fenty think of 4 mores years of Nickles.
6:40 pm
sorry 4 more years of Nickles.
8:27 am
OMG Petworth, you seem so bitter..lol. I guess u will be returning to the suburbs all pink and angry. Fenty is done for. Anyone who has taken the time to observe and listen to him, knows there isn't a big brain floating around in that head of his. He struggles with the easiest of concepts. He should have never been elected. I think people were hopeful that he would bring fresh new ideas....NOT!