Loose Lips

Poll Puts Gray Up by 8 Points*

New Poll Shows Vincent Gray Leading (Maybe)

A new poll, conducted by the somewhat secretive Bud's PAC (named after Bud Doggett), has D.C. Council Chairman Vincent Gray eight points ahead of Mayor Adrian Fenty in the mayoral race, according to a political operative with whom some results were shared.

LL has not seen the poll first hand, hasn't seen the crosstabs and doesn't know what the actual questions were what or the margin of error is. Or, for that matter, what firm conducted the survey. Which is to say, please take these results with a giant grain of salt. But hey, this is a blog! So here's what the spy shared with LL:

Gray: 42

Fenty: 34

Leo Alexander: 2

Someone else (Faith?!) 1

Undecided: 21

Also of note: Gray's favorability rating was 72 percent, compared to Fenty's 49 percent. The unfavorable rating was 13 percent for Gray, 44 percent for Fenty.

The poll showed there were 49 percent of those polls were undecideds in the council chairman's race, where At-Large Councilmember Kwame Brown had 30 percent compared to Vincent Orange's 21 percent.

And that brohaha over name recognition at the Ward 4 straw poll in the at-large race seems to be playing a big factor, with shadow Sen. Michael D. Brown pulling in 24 percent, compared with Phil Mendelson's 34 and Clark Ray's 8 percent.

LL's spy said that 1,175 calls were placed between Aug. 4-9. Campaign finance records show Bud's PAC paid $15,000 to Successful Capitol Strategies for "polling/mailing list" on July 30.

LL will update when he can get reps from both campaigns on the horn.

* Again, LL is relying on a trusted spy with these numbers. Please don't take them as gospel.

File photo by Darrow Montgomery

Comments

  1. #1

    Look at the poll numbers for Fenty, going back to the Clarus poll in fall 2009 and the Washington Post poll in January 2010.

    Fenty has always been stuck in the mid-to-high 30% range.

    He's stuck.

    Those numbers spell DOOM for any incumbent.

  2. #2

    Good and good riddance.

  3. #3

    Why do you put crap up with 21% undecided? Even if the 8 points is true...it is a useless poll. 21% undecided is absolutely huge.

  4. #4

    A poll that shows 21 percent undecided isn't useless, hymesb—it probably reflects reality pretty well. People haven't made their minds up yet who to vote for. This election, like many with high undecided numbers a few weeks out, may be decided in large part based on whether those undecideds bother to vote, and which way they break.

    That said, since City Paper didn't commission the poll and doesn't know that much about its inner workings, I'm not going to defend the actual results particularly strenuously. But in the abstract, just because a poll shows high numbers of undecided voters doesn't make it useless. Polls that "push" respondents to one side or the other to reduce the number of undecideds may overestimate the support either side has, and may gloss over the likelihood that turnout will be low.

  5. #5

    The large number undecided is an indictment of the local TV newscasts and the Washington Post.

    Throw out the horserace numbers, if you want. These are the numbers that matter:

    Also of note: Gray’s favorability rating was 72 percent, compared to Fenty’s 49 percent. The unfavorable rating was 13 percent for Gray, 44 percent for Fenty.

  6. #6

    Trulee Pist...

    You hit the nail on the head. Most of the undecideds already know who they're voting for. They're just not saying.

  7. #7

    SO COMMENTER #3 IS A PROFESSIONAL SHIT HANGER. HE KNOWS HOW TO PUT CRAP UP. FIGURED AS MUCH FROM A TYPICAL FENTY FLUNKIE.

    WELL SINCE YOU WILL BE OUT OF THE SHIT HANGING BUSINESS IN LESS THAN A MONTH. MAYBE THOSE FOLK IN UPPER NW COULD USE YOU TO HELP PICK UP YOUR DESIRABLES IN THE NEW PRISTINE CANINE ESTATE. IM SURE YOU ARE MORE THAN QUALIFIED!

  8. #8

    I participated in a poll around that time period. I didn't get the name of the org operating the poll (someone else answered). I know (as a truly undecided) that they did a follow-up question 'are you leaning Fenty/Gray' so I'd assume the results include leaners (if it was the same poll). Poll seemed balanced (definitely not a push poll), and included ward-level race. Glad to see some polling getting done on this!

  9. The District Sleeps Alone
    #9

    Mendo's in trouble. Wonder how many people picking Michael D. Brown are picking him because his name sounds black.

  10. #10

    @theDisSleeps, "Wonder how many people picking Michael D. Brown are picking him because his name sounds black."

    That's an odd statement. I don't think Michael Brown sounds like a "black" name. I could understand if it were Tyree Brown or similar. But, uhm, Michael "heckuva job brownie" Brown, former FEMA head, is a white male. Did you think he was black all this time?

  11. #11

    Bye Bye King Fenty. Your days in your kingdom are numbered. Once you are gone, your puppet Ward 4 Councilmember Muriel Bowser will be next.

  12. #12

    Mike Madden,

    Thanks for the insight. That makes sence.

  13. #13

    The big question is MOE. Without it the poll isn't very useful.

  14. #14

    @John: MOE can be determined with the sample size alone. The 1,175 respondents should give it about a +/- 3 percentage points MOE.

  15. #15

    @John: MOE can be determined with the sample size alone. The 1,175 respondents should give it about a +/- 3 percentage points MOE.

    MOE = .98/(n^.5)
    MOE = .98/(1175^.5) = 0.029

  16. #16

    D'oh - slow internet. Sorry for double-post.

  17. #17

    Let's not get complacent - be sure to get out and vote September 14.

Leave a Comment

Comments Shown. Turn Comments Off.
...