Somehow Y&H missed this story when it was originally published, but earlier this month the New York Times' Business section reported that 20,000 U.S. restaurants are expected to close over the next three years. Much of the downsizing is due to a specific mania that affected many during the E-Z Credit Era, namely overbuilding.

Times staffer Andrew Martin reports that the casualties will hit all levels, but that the ax will fall hardest on casual chain restaurants, like Applebee's:

In a recent note to investors, John Glass, an analyst for Morgan Stanley, said the casual dining industry – midrange restaurants like Applebee's – needed to shutter about 1,200 of its roughly 18,000 locations to regain financial health.

"The chain casual dining industry has been overbuilt since 2005," Mr. Glass wrote, noting that was the last year the industry posted positive numbers for customer traffic. "It may take two or more years to reach equilibrium."

Others said the pruning of restaurants would extend beyond casual dining to all types of restaurants. Bob Goldin, executive vice president at Technomic, a Chicago consultancy for the restaurant industry, predicted that more than 20,000 restaurants would close over the next three years.

"I think 20,000 is a minimum," he said. "We probably need more than that. There are a lot of marginal players out there."

Y&H will not shed a tear over losing another Applebee's in the suburban D.C. market, but he fears that this trend will continue to affect even those independent restaurant operators who haven't accumulated a ton of debt. Hate to say it, or even predict it, but look for more of the high-end places like Le Paradou to bite the dust.

Photo by NNECAPA

Morou: Hit him with your best question

Given the apparently precarious nature of our local dining scene, we should all jump at the chance to poke and prod at one of the area's premier chefs, Morou Ouattara, who recently told the Washingtonian's Todd Kliman that he'll be pulling the plug on Farrah Olivia in Old Town on April 29.

And now we have the chance: Ouattara will be hosting today's 11 a.m. edition of Grill Warren at Northern Virginia magazine.

Not that Y&H is asking you to do his work, but here's what I'd want to know, if I got a chance to grill Morou:

• Was Old Town the right market for your brand of modern cooking or was it just the wrong address in Old Town? Or both?
• Does the current economy make it practically impossible to run a true, high-end restaurant?
• How do you feel about working with your brother at the planned new restaurant/bar/lounge in Crystal City? No sibling rivalry?
• Do you think the D.C. market is open right now for another go at Farrah Olivia? Or do you think you should wait to reopen the restaurant when the economy improves?

According to the New York Times, Americans seem to be coping with the economic downturn by gobbling down obscene amounts of Necco Wafers and other sugary treats. I read this piece with great interest, since my own candy intake appears to be rising. 'Course, I blamed it on blogging, which is probably worse on your health (and the environment) than red meat.

Reports the Times:

The recession seems to have a sweet tooth. As unemployment has risen and 401(k)’s have shrunk, Americans, particularly adults, have been consuming growing volumes of candy, from Mary Janes and Tootsie Rolls to Gummy Bears and cheap chocolates, say candy makers, store owners and industry experts.

Theories vary on exactly why. For many, sugar lifts spirits dragged low by the languishing economy. For others, candy also provides a nostalgic reminder of better times. And not insignificantly, it is relatively cheap.

Given this information, Y&H wonders if other restaurants will follow the lead of Liberty Tavern and replace their brunch dessert bars with candy ones.

You have to hand it to California Tortilla, the Rockville-based chain, for developing a two-pronged promotional plan that gives the recently unemployed a free burrito while simultaneously grooming them as future diners. I don't know if I should applaud or take a shower.

According to this small item in the Washington Business Journal, California Tortilla "is encouraging terminated employees to hold onto their unemployment papers for a little while longer after they file. Those who can mail proof of termination to the company can receive a 'Burrito Elito' card loaded with a free burrito."

So far, so good. But then the Journal notes that "[r]ecipients are also eligible for double points on their Burrito Elito card for a month, which awards free items when purchases begin to add up."

For a full month, really?! Does California Tortilla realize how long it takes to find a new job? But more to the point, does California Tortilla think that asking the unemployed to eat at their restaurants regularly is wisest or most ethical strategy?

Image by Flickr user Swift Benjamin

You'll have to excuse my recent fascination with diners. Yes, I love almost everything about them: their endless menus, their hon-heavy waitresses, and their willingness to serve you a stack a syrupy flapjacks at 3 in the morning, no questions asked. But during our current economic meltdown, I love diners mostly for their symbolism. They're survivors. They've been through the worst that our economy has dished out. You can hang your flat-billed cap on that.

Metro Connection host David Furst and I will discuss diners in even more detail today and tomorrow. We'll talk about which one serves the best eggs, which one serves the best grilled cheese, and which one serves the best Greek food. You'll want to tune at 1 p.m. today (7 a.m. tomorrow) at 88.5 FM.

Photo by Darrow Montgomery

College Park-based Joe Spinelli has been in the restaurant business for more than 30 years, consulting and supplying and troubleshooting for some of the biggest (and smallest) eateries in the country, from California Pizza Kitchen to the Amsterdam Falafelshop. He's probably consulted on more restaurants than most people have eaten in. As such, Spinelli's seen a lot of down markets, but he doesn't think the current economy will affect restaurants in the D.C. region as harshly as those in other areas. He says his consulting company is still opening three to four restaurants a week in our market.

There's one caveat to all those openings, though: Most are in the so-called fast-casual market, places like Organic to Go and Nando's Peri-Peri, where the food is relative cheap and where folks don't have to leave a tip. "People are still going out to eat," Spinelli says. "They're just not going to Ruth's Chris."

Say it ain't so, Joe! So does that mean gloom and doom for small, independent, white-tablecloth restaurants in the area?

Not necessarily, he says. While recessions tend to "clean house" in a market—close down restaurants, in other words, that are barely covering the bills in a good economy—Spinelli says that fine-dining operations with "solid programs" and decent capital will survive this downturn. D.C., he says, will not hurt as bad as other cities, mostly because we have the federal government to keep pumping money into the local economy.

For example, Spinelli says, restaurants in Atlanta are already suffering. He recently visited the city, which he called a "distressed area."

"All the restaurants are dying," he says.

Image by Flickr user NCinDC

Reporter Janet Adamy writes:

"The busser is a luxury that, in this environment, is very difficult to justify," says Mark Godward, president and founder of SRE, a Miami consulting firm that has advised several restaurants to cut busboys.

In many states, it's cheaper to keep servers on the clock than bussers because of a loophole that allows restaurants to pay servers who earn tips less than the minimum wage — as little as $2.13 an hour. Bussers must be paid at least $6.55 an hour.

Waiters and waitresses at most full-service restaurants always have shared some responsibility for clearing their tables, and plenty of sit-down eateries historically have gotten by without busboys. But at restaurants that have long employed them, their departure is making the already demanding job of waiting tables more hectic. Servers depend on bussers to stock ice bins, roll silverware into napkins, refill water glasses and deliver bread to tables.

Some restaurant executives see this as a worrisome trend. To ensure good service, "it would absolutely be the last place I'd cut," says Nelson Marchioli, chief executive of breakfast chain Denny's Corp.

How much longer do you give it before mid-level restaurants start asking patrons to bus their own tables, like at a cafeteria?

The specter of "recession pounds" is a concern weighing on health professionals, who point to numerous studies linking obesity and unhealthy eating habits to low incomes.

They fear that as people cut food spending they will cut back on healthy but relatively expensive items such as fresh fish, fruit, vegetables and whole grains, in favor of cheaper options high in sugar and saturated fats.

"People ... are going to economize and as they save money on food they will be eating more empty calories or foods high in sugar, saturated fats and refined grains, which are cheaper," said Adam Drewnowski, the director of the Nutrition Sciences Program at the University of Washington in Seattle.

"Things are going to get worse," he told Reuters in a telephone interview. "Obesity is a toxic result of a failing economic environment."

London's Telegraph reports: "Silvio Berlusconi's government is to buy 100,000 of the country's beloved Parmigiano Reggiano cheeses from its hard-pressed producers at a cost to the state of 50 million euros (£45 million)."

The sad thing is, Parmesan producers are not the only cheese-makers looking for a government hand-out in Italy.

Reports the Telegraph:

Producers of Italy's other celebrated cheese — buffalo mozzarella — are looking on enviously after suffering an 18 percent drop in sales in the last year. "We've asked for help too," said Vincenzo Oliviero, the head of Italy's mozzarella producers association, which has yet to receive an injection of state aid.

Photo by Flickr user evbjone