Loose Lips

Poll Puts Bowser Almost Even With Gray, Says Bowser Campaign

Tuesday's Washington Post poll left Muriel Bowser with just half of Vince Gray's numbers, a hard knock for a candidate who had previously been considered Gray's leading challenger. Bowser's campaign responded today, releasing an internal poll that says Bowser is nearly tied with Gray.

"It’s basically a dead heat with the mayor," says Bowser campaign manager Bo Shuff.

Bowser's poll, from firm Garin-Hart-Yang, has Gray at 20 percent and Bowser at 18 percent, with a 4.4 percent margin of error. Jack Evans and Tommy Wells are close behind, both at 15 percent. Vincent Orange has 6 percent of the vote, with 23 percent undecided. Pollsters contacted 502 likely Democratic voters on land lines and cell phones, according to a polling memo released by the campaign.

LL's taking the poll with a grain of salt for now. Not only is it campaign-commissioned, but Bowser's memo didn't include the phrasing of the poll questions. Also missing: an explanation of whether the poll included hopefuls Andy Shallal and Reta Lewis, neither of whom is mentioned in the memo. (Update, Jan. 17: Shallal was the only nonofficeholder included in the poll, although respondents could suggest a candidate.)

In the memo, pollster Frederick Yang declares that Bowser has "considerable upside potential," arguing that she'll gain more votes as her name recognition increases.

Gray campaign manager Chuck Thies says Bowser's campaign is just trying to woo donors after the Post poll, adding that it's "shocking" that Bowser would tout data showing her with 18 percent of the vote.

"You can’t blame that on us, because we weren’t in the race [until December]," Thies says. "You’ve got to look in the mirror and say, 'Oh, it’s about me and my campaign, it’s not about the mayor. It’s about me and my campaign, why won’t people pay attention to me? Why can’t I get people to support me?'"

Shuff says Bowser's lack of name recognition—her poll shows 61 percent of voters having either no opinion of her or do not know who she is—bodes well for his candidate.

"It shows us a lot of potential upward growth for us, and not so much for the mayor," Shuff says.

Update, Jan. 17: Wells campaign manager Chebon Marshall emailed LL some thoughts on the poll.

"I appreciate that the Bowser folks are tying to get all they can out of her poll, but Muriel's characterization of a dead heat between she and the mayor, but not between she and Tommy," Marshall writes. "Leaves me with the assumption that Muriel won't be taking the lead on improving math scores in our schools."

Photo by Darrow Montgomery

  • Zed

    Lacks credibility, for one.

  • sally

    So Bowser is trumpeting an internal poll that shows her within the margin of error of Evans and Wells AND shows she has no name recognition in the city???

    Truly, she is a dumbass.

  • Marvin E. Adams

    ?...

  • john

    The incumbent mayor has 20% --that's what's embarrassing. Its time for a change at the Wilson Building. Bowser is so much better than Gray

  • RealDC

    Bowser better watch out. Gray gonna let loose another 650K shadow campaign against her. I bet he got Sulimon Brown on speed dial

  • Ward4actv

    Nothing but a bunch of clowns running for mayor. Bowser has don a good job for Ward 4. Hopefully she can bring the same success to the rest of the city.

  • MomDC2

    I don't care about a poll. We need a mayor that is going to improve the sad state of affairs with the school system. Gray has done very little east of the river where the schools, need help. I dont want to send my kids across town for a decent education. Anybody but Gray

  • coolkat

    We do not want another Anita Bonds situation. A vote for anyone other than Muriel Bowsar is a vote to put Vince Gray back in office. We need a runoff system in DC

  • hambone

    Don't know who I am voting for--but not Vinny boy - another embarrassment for DC

  • http://Citypaper Ward 4

    Are you crazy or dumb? Bowser done a good job for ward 4 what city are you living. Please tell me what has she done I will like to know the Walmart came from Vincent Gray not her. That's why upper George Avenue look like a dump because of her. Keep telling yourself she's going to win maybe you will believe it .knowone know her but people in ward 4 and I live there most people not going to vote for her in her own ward .Gary have my vote.:)

  • matt

    Internal polls are cooked. Everyone know this. Bowser has done a good job, wow, those who say this must have pretty low standards.

  • Papa Scurf

    IS MURIEL MARRIED? DOES SHE CHILDREN IN DC PUBLIC SCHOOLS?

  • GLBT

    The Bowser fiasco factored in the fact that much of their support is in the closet. Unbelievable that they the word "proud" in the logo when she is so obviously anything but!

    If Bowser and Lightfoot (who appears to have turned into an old woman) think Chuck Thies is going to play Mister Niceguy and let Muriel's "issue" remain behind a closed door they don't know Chuck.

    Thies is clever and doesn't miss obvious shots as apparently the boneheads running the other campaigns do. No accident I'm sure that the Mayor's "official" announcement was timed to right before the release of the Post poll. Thies has kept Gray at the top of the news cycle for two weeks now.

    Bowser beware! You won't see it coming but this dumb act you've been trying to pull off is going to end real soon.

    Who is Shu Enuf and what happened to Tom Lindenfeld?

  • Hartman Bonkers

    Bowser is unmarried. No kids. Has a partner that she does not acknowledge in public.People in ward four other than her die hards know that she is not a substantive legislator.

    Can't really name any of her council proposals or neighborhood victories.

  • GLBT

    Keep in mind Thies sees himself as the Dick Tuck of DC politics.

  • DC Guy

    Murial's campaign has shown that it is truly amateur hour in DC. Sally pretty much said it best, "she is a dumbass."

  • Nina

    Nobody should care if bowser is married or unmarried, it is not a factor that should matter to be considered a viable candidate for mayor of dc.

    It should not matter if bowser is gay or straight. What does matter is if she can be a good executive. Nothing that we have seen so far indicates that she is even close to being ready for mayor.

    My money is on Catania. Gray will lose to Catania.

    For the bigots in the group, Bowser is not gay, but she does have a relationship.

  • Bob B

    IS BOWSER HONEST? PROUD?

  • GLBT

    @Hartman Bonker
    Does said partner have a gender per chance?

  • Hartman Bonker

    U should ask her GLBT. Miss Bowser can answer the question.

  • truth hurts

    Sock puppets in the house.

  • Hartman Bonker

    Truth Hurts what is a sock puppet

  • truth hurts

    Sock puppet is an online identity created for deceptive purposes. In this case, I'm referring to those people who post comments under monikers not previously used on this site, people who work for one of the candidates, but pretend that they don't.

  • king of sock puppets in da haus

    truth hurts who do you work with? No names. A candidate?

  • drez

    The pollsters who worked for her are top notch national level.
    They are known for quality, not hack work.

  • drez

    And, yup, lots of new names all of the sudden here.
    I'd put them as Evans and gray staffers.

  • Smh

    S/O to the sock puppets! LOL

  • jorge

    I think Bowser is a really terrible choice (not as bad as Tommy or VO of course) but these comments about her sexual orientation are despicable.

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  • Ward-8

    Bowser and her campaign staff are suffering from delusion of grandeur, I have receive several calls from her minions"Can we depend on your support for Muriel"I ask them what the F**k have she done, what bill have she sponsored, what have she done for the people in Ward four, what the hell have she done for the residents of DC except draw a pay check for herself since she have been on the council. You get this silence, then well can we depend on your support? Hell No!

  • SEis4ME

    Bowser's campaign is a redo of Adrian Fenty..sans name recognition, roots in the community, hope and change etc. If Fenty couldn't win w/all of those attributes then how can she?

    She's on her way to becoming the laughingstock i thought was previously reserved for Reta Lewis...another horrible choice for Mayor.

  • justsayin

    She's done nothing for Ward 4, except for a select group west of constituents. When I recently saw her campaign workers at a southeast metro station I was glad they didn't pounce with their spiel because I would have told them to save the clown show for someone who DOESN'T know better.

  • justsayin

    Correction: ".... .select group of constituents, mostly residing west of GA Ave."

  • http://Www.DCLibertarians2008.blogspot.com Bruce Majors

    The Pst poll had an interesting result that the Post reporters and everyone else failed to notice. The real winner was None of the Above, which beat Mayor Gray 26% to 24%.

    The Post hid it by breaking the NOTA vote up into "no one," "other," "no opinion," subcategories that themselves often outpolled most of the field. But added together they beat them all, including Mayor Gray.

  • justsayin

    I didn't take the WPost poll any more seriously than I do the Bowser poll because when I added the percentages it was obvious that the real results are in the subcategories.

  • http://www.glaaforum.org Richard J. Rosendall

    I am inspired by Bo Shuff's statement that Muriel's 61 percent non-name-recognition is good news because it shows great upward growth potential. I expect that my own non-name recognition is upwards of 99 percent. I've got it made! I'm grabbing a tape measure and heading to the Mayor's suite at the Wilson Building now!

  • noodlez

    BOWSER GOT THOSE SAME FLENTY FLUNKIES WHO GOT BEAT DOWN IN 2010 BELIEVING THEY ARE MAKING WAVES WHEN THEY ARE MOORED AT THE DOCK. THE SAME OL' SAME OL' WACK POLLS & DELUSIONS OF GRANDEUR AND PROCEEDING AS IF ANYONE IS NOT SMART ENOUGH TO UNDERSTAND WHAT HER CAMPAIGNED IS DOING.

    DAMN AT LEAST WAIT A WEEK OR SO FOR THE SNOW JOB! BOWSER IS NOT STAYING IN HER LANE SWERVING ALL OVER THE PLACE. WE ALL KNOW BOWSER 2014 IS GETTING READY TO FLIP OVER AND LAND IN A DITCH WITH ALL HER OVER CORRECTIONS. I HAD HIGH HOPES FOR HER. WHAT A WASTE!

  • Miss Lu Lu Hog

    This poll is a lie and Muriel is a loser. Muriel Bowser is not a people's person and the woman lacks social skills. Her constituent service staff and her overrall staff are non responsive and sometimes arrogant. Is Muriel Bowser a human being and does she care about others because she damn don't show it. I will not be voting for this woman. She's like a Zombie on AMC's 'The Walking Dead'.

    Ward 4 Voter

  • stick2yourguns

    bower and her camp are LIARS, she is unresponsive unless you are part of her lil click. and to answer your question about if she is married hell no, she was being kept by fenty while he was married, she has no children, so she is very unrelatable to those parents with children and issues, which will explain why she allowed Roosevelt & Coolidge funding to be taken off the table and used for other things....very sad being as though those who started the school modernization bills were ward 4 residents but if you look arounf ward 4's only 2 high schools are the very LAST to be fixed!! Crime in her own neighborhood is awful so what could she possible offer to your neighborhood. In a neighborhood meeting she expressed to renters if you don't like the high rent then stop renting and buy!!! Well ms bowser some of us have children and spouses (even though you don't) and can't afford to buy because we are barely making it renting! she is a very nice in your face and neighborhood kinda person now, but most of you have never seen or heard of her before this race and it will go back to that after this race and we all need to stop allowing a once in a year type of person our votes! we as african americans need to not vote for her because she is black...

  • Ron Washington

    Muriel is an empty suit

  • REALDC

    LMAO! Really? This ding-bat put out some garbage internal poll that claims the mayoral race is dead heat?? Bowser is delusional!!

    The WP and DeBonis should be outraged. Bowser has called your poll crap and illegitimate. Now the WP can stop being nice with Bowser and write real stories on her record in ward 4.

    Questions for Bowser:

    Why are you running for mayor when more than half of ward 4 is not supporting you? You have very little AA support in wards 5, 7,8, why? Your numbers among AA women are very low. Please explain. You have been campaigning 9+ months and you are happy that 61% of the voters do not know who you are? LOL! You have an upside? LOL! DC Proud?? No, more like DC Dumb! LOL!

    Bowser is just trying to save face with her donors. They gave her a lot of money and she is not leading in area of the city. In some areas, she is getting crushed. Evans is beating you in ward 7 & 8. LOL! It was a waste of money to donate to her campaign. Bowser touts that she has a lot of cash on hand, ok, so what! You are trailing in "all" polls and not using your money.

    Just dumb..... no, DC DUMB.

    No thanks, Ward 4 can keep Bowser..... she is yours. LOL!!

  • Marvin E. Adams

    Unlike spme others, i will NOT disparage Councilmember Bowser. But what I will say, is her campaign reminds me of the "Keystone Cops." Can somebody, anybpdy 'splain it to me, why it was necessary to 1)Do an internal poll; 2)present the results when they did - the timing was more than just coincidence.In this case, I guess the Bowser troops are hoping that the voters in D.C. are truly, like themselves, Delucional Citzens (DC)...

  • justsayin

    The poll---such as it is--would be more "credible" if it weren't an obvious knee-jerk reaction to the WP poll.

  • Ward4Voter

    Bowser has no vision for DC.

    She has never lead any office, agency, or business, so I have no idea why she or anyone else thinks she can run a city.

    She only wants to be Mayor to burnish her own credentials. She doesn't care about DC or the people in DC.

    She is an empty suit with an empty head.

  • Delta Sigma Theta Soror

    I agree with Miss Lu Lu Hogg, Muriel Boswer is lacking people skills. Most Ward 4 residents I know never get any responses from Miss Bowser or her staff. I have to contact Mayor Gray's office or other D.C. Councilmembers for assistance. Bowser's Legislative Director, Robert Hawkins is sexy and good looking. However, I will not be voting for Muriel Bowser. Her sexuality is nobody's business. I don't care if Ward 4 Councilmember Bowser isn't married. There are a lot of men and women that's not married and they are straight. Society still dictates people should get married and have children. Marriage and children aren't for everyone.

  • Marvin E. Adams

    To all Ward Four residents: If Councilmember Bowswer is T=H-A-T- bad, why is she still your councilmember? Inquiring minds want to know...

  • Disappointed N Ms. Bowser

    I could care less about her sexual preferences. What I would like to know is what she has done for economic development in DC? Has she done anything? She is the chair of the economic development authority. Has she done anything to make it easier for small biz or any biz in DC? I cannot find any proof of that? At least Mr. Catania is open and honest and out of the closet?? While I don't care about Ms. Bowser's preferences in the bed, it is nice and refreshing to see an opponent that is open and honest about things?? I too have had a horrendous time getting any response from her office. Especially now that she has won the primary. I guess she thinks it is all over and done with and she has this in the bucket?? The bucket as I see it could actually be a looking ball as to what is yet to come. I've become very disappointed with her and her staff.

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