Loose Lips

The Most Interesting Numbers from the Post Mayoral Poll

Yesterday's Washington Post poll left every candidate but frontrunner Vince Gray straining for a cheerful take on their numbers. Even Reta Lewis, who came in behind everyone but long shot Christian Carter, has a positive gloss on it. Fortunately, the Post's website also offers some more demographic data that's more resistant to spin.

Women

As an African-American woman, Muriel Bowser should in theory have some appeal to that demographic, but Gray leads among African-American women in the poll with 33 percent. Bowser comes in a distant second with 15 percent, practically tied with Vincent Orange at 14 percent.

Twenty-six percent of white women, meanwhile, chose Tommy Wells, putting him ahead among that demographic.

Evans of the River

Gray wins wards 7 and 8 easily, with a combined 34 percent of the vote. What's more interesting is that Evans, the very essence of a white Georgetown guy, comes in second with 15 percent. Bowser, meanwhile, pulled only 10 percent in the mostly African-American wards. Evans tells LL that he's "very heartened" that he beat Bowser on the eastern side of the Anacostia.

While campaigning in wards 7 and 8 is paying off for Evans, it isn't for Wells and Busboys & Poets owner Andy Shallal. Wells only brought in 2 percent of respondents in those wards, while Shallal received 0 percent.

If Evans is taking votes from Gray, he's also missing out on his own base: rich dudes! With 23 percent of the vote, Wells is the candidate of choice for people making more than $100,000, while Evans comes in fourth behind Gray and Bowser with 13 percent.

General Approval

David Catania may be the only mayoral hopeful to get unvarnished good news out of the poll, with respondents putting him at a near-tie with Gray in the general election. Digging down into the data looks even more promising for Catania, who not only beats Gray among non-Democratic voters with 44 percent but only trails Gray 49 percent to 38 percent among Democrats.

Catania repeats the pattern when it comes to voters' race, winning 55 percent of white voters to Gray's 23 percent but losing African-American voters to Gray, 57 percent to 28 percent.

Photo by Darrow Montgomery

Comments

  1. #1

    Vincent Gray should and will be mayor. Jack Evans should and will be Chairman. Mendo is weak.

  2. #2

    DC needs vision and leadership. Gray and Evans have it. Catania would make a great elected AG.

  3. #3

    How does Bowser do among closeted lesbians and conservative black church folks?

  4. coralline hartwell
    #4

    munchkin don't be petty and offensive. Just because Ms. bowser is not married does not mean she is gay. The councilwoman is a strong supporter of the gay population and I find it doubtful that she would be in the closet running for mayor.

  5. #5

    MUNCHKIN WHAT GIVES YOU THE RIGHT TO QUESTION MURIEL'S PERSONAL AND PRIVATE LIFE??

  6. #6

    MUNCHKIN ARE YOU A BIGOT? RACIST?

  7. #7

    WHO CARES IF BOWSER IS GAY OR NOT. THERE IS NO PROOF.

    BESIDES WHAT SHOULD MATTER IS IF SHE IS CAPABLE OF BEING MAYOR.

  8. #8

    Catania is gay, nobody cares that he is. If homegirl bowser is gay too, it should not matter. Not a requirement to be a breeder for mayor of washdc.

  9. #9

    WILLY EARL YOUR PASSIVE AGGRESSIVE COLUMN DON'T MEAN SHIT.

    I WISH THAT PUNK RUNS FOR MAYOR SO HE CAN GET CRUSHED AND PUT IN HIS PLACE! HIS FEELINGS WILL GET HURT BY JOKERS LIKE YOU BOOSTING HIS CONFIDENCE WITH SILLY ASS SKEWED POLLS THAT DOESN'T BEGIN TO REPRESENT THE MAKE UP OF THIS CITY.

    BY THE WAY I CALLED THIS 4 YEARS AGO! CHECK OUT MY COMMENT #12 CAUTION THE COMMENTS ARE A BIT "R" RATED.
    http://www.washingtoncitypaper.com/blogs/housingcomplex/2009/11/13/councilmembers-dig-in-heels-on-catholic-threat/

    FYI-NO READS THE POST ANY LONGER EXCEPT DEBONIS AND THE SPORTS SECTION.

  10. #10

    "Jack Evans should and will be Chairman."

    With three kids about to come of age and head off to college, Evans is not going to give up his part-time day job at Patton Boggs, a requirement as Council Chair.

  11. #11

    @SE4ME, can you be just a tad bit more original?

    Interesting but not surprising numbers. One of the biggest knocks against Bowser is the lack of support she has in the black community. Gray's double-digit lead confirms that. I also see why Evans is racking up huge numbers. He doesn't come across as offensive..despite his G'Town creds. It also proves that blacks EOTR aren't as "anti-white" as many of those (blacks and whites) EOTR suggests. Evans will be my 2nd choice behind Gray.

    I do wonder how Wells' base of support differs from Fenty who also had majority support from white women and men. That would essentially prove what many of us thought 4 years ago. Wells base consists almost entirely of disgruntled Fenty voters.

  12. #12

    SEis4ME you are the original and so right.

    The only support empty suit bowser has is with Fenty supporters, people from Fenty Administration that want back in and WP.

    I second your gray for mayor and Evans for chair.

  13. #13

    Mayor Gray will be Mayor Gray for the next four years.

  14. #14

    The most interesting numb is that None of the Above beat Mayor Gray 26% to 24%.

    The Post hid it by breaking the NOTA vote up into "no one," "other," "no opinion," subcategories that themselves often outpolled most of the field. But added together they beat them all, including Mayor Gray.

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