Loose Lips

Gray Leads Post Poll With Just 24 Percent

Vince Gray has twice as many voters as his closest rival in a new poll out from the Washington Post today, which shows an electorate split among eight candidates. Here's how Gray compared to his rivals in the poll, conducted from Jan. 9 to Jan. 12:

  • Vince Gray: 24 percent
  • Muriel Bowser: 12 percent
  • Jack Evans: 11 percent
  • Tommy Wells: 11 percent
  • Vincent Orange: 9 percent
  • Andy Shallal: 5 percent
  • Reta Lewis: 1 percent
  • Christian Carter: 1 percent
  • No one/none: 12 percent
  • No opinion: 11 percent

The numbers change when the poll considers likely voters, although not beyond the margin of error. Gray's total swells to 27 percent, Evans takes 13 percent, and Bowser and Wells both pull 12 percent. Orange's total falls to 7 percent*, Shallal stays at 5 percent, Lewis has 2 percent, and Carter stays at 1 percent.

Gray earned good ratings from respondents on crime (55 percent approval), attracting new business (68 percent approval), and the general direction of the city (59 percent approval). But 43 percent of respondents said the corruption in Gray's 2010 campaign would be a "major factor" in their vote.

Gray campaign manager Chuck Thies blames the disconnect between voters' high opinion of Gray's mayoralty and his comparatively meager 24 percent share of the vote on—all together now, gang—the media and Gray's opponents obsessing over the 2010 campaign.

“This mayor could cut a ribbon in front of an orphanage, and you would find a way to fit 2010 into the narrative,” Thies tells LL.

Rival Wells says he's not discouraged by the poll, which shows him statistically tied for second between Bowser and Evans. "It’s between me, Jack, and Muriel," says Wells, adding that he'd be "devastated" as an incumbent if he only pulled 24 percent of the vote. (LL can't help pointing out that technically, it's between Wells, Evans, Bowser, "no one" and "no opinion.")

The poll should also delight At-Large Councilmember David Catania, who's mulling an independent mayoral run after the Democratic primary. Gray's approval rating on public schools came within the margin of error of his disapproval rating—and that's exactly the issue Catania, the chair of the D.C. Council's education committee, has been hitting the mayor on.

Thies wouldn't comment on the general election polling, calling the race "hypothetical." But, according to former Councilmember Sharon Ambrose, who's chairing Catania's exploratory committee, it might not be that way for long.

“I think he’s leaning very strongly toward running," says Ambrose, adding that today's poll results make Catania even more likely to run.

Update, 3:30 p.m.: Catania tells LL that the Post poll's results were "encouraging."

"They indicate that should I choose to run for mayor this year, the race will be very competitive," he says.

* Correction: Due to a reporting error, this post originally misstated Vincent Orange's total in the poll of likely voters. It is 7 percent, not 9 percent.

Photo by Darrow Montgomery

Comments

  1. #1

    Go Gray!!!

  2. #2

    Vince Gray for Mayor. After he apologized last Saturday for all the Mess in 2010, Im voting for Vince Gray to let him continue for a better DC. I live in WARD 4.

  3. #3

    My opinion is there are so many candidates because they want to see if more criminal allegations against Gray or his people come to light in the next months. If so, it will be a free-for all when Gray drops out. If Gray stays in, it will be interesting to watch the political dealmaking that goes on as most of the other candidates drop out. Hopefully they all make a deal with Bowser, the next favorite candidate right now.

  4. #4

    You get what you vote for. You want campaign scandals and a mayor whose 4 close advisors commit felonies, than go for Gray again. Won't fool me twice. We deserve better than this. Or we can just continue to let Congress make us their bitch..

  5. #5

    That's right, all of the negative one issue "journalism" of the City Paper, Tom Sherwood, the Post and others about the 2010 election still can't shake the fact that Mayor Gray has done a great job as mayor. The Council members running are delusional if they think that people in this city think highly of them with their stupid nuisance bag taxes, trolley cars, bike lanes, Nanny state regulations, grandstanding, knee jerk legislation and corruption. Compared to them, Gray is a Mandela. He will win the primary easily and whip Catania in the general election. You heard it here first.

  6. #6

    Corky: Hi Chuck!

  7. #7

    While it is true that 74% of the people polled suggested someone other than Gray as their first choice, I wonder how many would support him if "their" candidate weren't in the race.

    I am guessing that if Gray wins (which, barring indictment, he probably will) that Catania will be exposed in the general election as being a one-trick pony.

  8. #8

    24 percent for Gray is significant. That is half more than ms. bowser.

    Not sure what the appeal for ms.bowser is. She only comes around to visiting folks when she is up for reelection. She has not been impressive at all as councilmember. The woman has no accomplishments. We don't know who she is, which Muriel bowser is she?

    She has been dishonest about at great deal of things and is not authentic, I am not saying she is corrupt or criminal! but lacks authenticity and substance.

  9. #9

    Vincent Orange is corrupt and ego maniacal. If he was mayor we would have what Detroit had, he is the black Robert ford mAyor of Toronto. A real clown, shady at best.

    Shallal is a good and decent man. But not even close to being a real contender and ready to govern dc.

    Carter and Lewis are irrelevant. Wells and Evans are decent enough, eVans being the most accomplished of the group.

  10. #10

    @Eli Jacobson: Not that you have taken the gloves off, why don't you R-E-A-L-L-Y tell us how you feel:)

  11. #11

    Oh me oh my! Someone get DREZ some medical attention because I'm absolutely certain he will commit suicide when realizing Gray is actually leading in the polls

  12. #12

    Vince Gray's argument effectively is: "The ends justify the means, yeah sorry about that. Look what A decent job I've done."

    Problem is, he may in fact be an illegitimate mayor.

  13. #13

    wait, the absolute best, kindest, least-corrupt example Theis can think of is Gray opening an orphanage?

    We [meaning DC residents] are screwed.

    And yet, I can't help but think that none of the other candidates are better enough to make changing administrations worthwhile.

  14. #14

    Ward3--you sound like a birther. Illegitimate mayor? Are you kidding me? Elmer Fudd could have beaten Fenty in 2010. If you think that the only reason Fenty lost is because of some nonsense with Sulaimon Brwon, then you are really living in a bubble. Get out of Ward 3 for just a day and ask anyone on the east side (where the majority of voters live) about Fenty. If you don't get laughed at, you'll get cursed out. Fenty was despised in 2010 by the majority of DC voters. If all you read are the City Paper and the Washington Post, then I can understand your distance from political reality in DC.

  15. #15

    Corky: Hi Chuck! (2)

  16. #16

    Muriel is a council without a SUBSTANCE, and DC is not ready for a WHITE MAYOR..........We have to RE ELECT GRAY to move on in DC.

  17. #17

    SEis4Me:
    Far from it. Gray faces a divided field in the primary, and is leading with 3/4 of voters refusing to vote for him. Even if he wins there, he will face a unified "Anybody BUT Gray" block in the general.
    He's a known quantity.his numbers have been stuck at 24% (you'll see I've put him at 20-25% in recent weeks) for a long time now. They aren't going to move up or down unless Ron Machen moves them.
    Gray will not be the next Mayor. He's one and done.
    A vote for Gray in the primary is really a vote for Catania in the general.
    Not my first choice, but I bet you and the other Gray supporters hate that inevitability a whole lot more than I do.
    But please, don't kill yourself over it. Just pick a different candidate. Preferably someone who isn't a crook.

  18. #18

    I am continually amazed by some of the things I hear coming from the mouths of some of the D.C residents. Case in point, 1)"D.C. is NOT ready for a white mayor"; 2)"DC will NEVER elect a Republican." The citizens of this great city seem to have a very short memory. Not too terribly long ago, a white, Republican ran for mayor and received over 30% of the vote. It does NOT take a Rhodes Scholar to figure out that a lot of the registered Democrats voted for Ms. Schwartz!

    Any person, of reasonable intelligence, and who thinks logically, should understand the political dynamics that are about to being played out in this election. Actually, it is very simple. It will come down to numbers and demographics. Councilman Catania understands this. However, there are others who do not. And unless they come to this realization, sooner, rather than later, some of them may be in for a rude awakening, if not on April 2, 2014, defintely come this November.

  19. #19

    Howard Brooks, Thomas Gore, Vernon Hawkins, Jean Harris, Doug Jemal, Harry Thomas, Michael Brown, Kwame Brown, Bruce Bereano et al. What do they have in common?

    All are convicted felons (most for politically-related corruption) and all are/were one city's close friends/advisors. Go Gray, go!!

  20. #20

    Contrary to the pipe dream of the Fenty acolytes, if Gray wins the primary and Catania runs as an independent against him, you will find high voter turnout in wards 4,5,7,8 as the severely anti-Catania electorate. What continues to be the case is that those who have moved into the city have retained their voting rights in their home state. They can't and don't vote in local elections in the District.

  21. #21

    Gray is a crook and a liar.

    Vote Bowser in 2014!!!!!!!!!
    Vote Bowser in 2014!!!!!!!!!
    Vote Bowser in 2014!!!!!!!!!
    Vote Bowser in 2014!!!!!!!!!

  22. #22

    Forget Bowser....No SUBSTANCE/SHE HAS DONE ZERO.

    VINCE GRAY 2014!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  23. #23

    Gray faces a divided field in the primary, and is leading with 3/4 of voters refusing to vote for him.

    Poll please? We readers would appreciate it! Thanks!

    Even if he wins there, he will face a unified "Anybody BUT Gray" block in the general.

    Similar to the Anybody but Gray voters who wrote in Fenty's name during the last go-round? W/that 0% success rate? Well ok.

    They aren't going to move up or down unless Ron Machen moves them.

    As in, they'll go down is Machen charges him and up if he don't?

    Gray will not be the next Mayor. He's one and done.

    After just acknowledging that his numbers will go up if Machen comes up empty, he still loses? LMAO

    A vote for Gray in the primary is really a vote for Catania in the general. Not my first choice, but I bet you and the other Gray supporters hate that inevitability a whole lot more than I do.

    Wait, so Catania will be able to shore up his previous support of Mitt Romney (the antichrist to many DC residents) and somehow convince these same voters who didn't support his last effort...to elect him as Mayor?

    Sillyman Brown-Moten is that you?

  24. #24

    if you vote for bowser then you are as dumb as her. what has she done besides have the biggest turn over of staff in the history of the city council. turned up her nose at renters, returning citizens, and been unresponsive UNLESS you are part of her click. another post earlier said DC isn't ready for a white mayor and I say why not?? I also say it will be Gray of Evans as mayor and at least with Evans you see your getting a white man, bowser is out here faking like she is "down" with the people (black) only because now she needs their vote she is so phony plus when you see her you are getting a black woman who sees herself as (white) You may not like my statement but it's the truth

  25. #25

    ^paid evans staffer

  26. #26

    Gray will re reelected because Bowser and Wells will split the anti-Gray vote. Bowser and Wells are too stubborn to drop out, but Evans will take a sweetener from Gray to drop out and endorse him.

  27. #27

    Gray fa Gray faces a divided field in the primary, and is leading with 3/4 of voters refusing to vote for him.

    Poll please? We readers would appreciate it! Thanks!

    Even if he wins there, he will face a unified "Anybody BUT Gray" block in the general.

    Similar to the Anybody but Gray voters who wrote in Fenty's name during the last go-round? W/that 0% success rate? Well ok.

    They aren't going to move up or down unless Ron Machen moves them.

    As in, they'll go down is Machen charges him and up if he don't?

    Gray will not be the next Mayor. He's one and done.

    After just acknowledging that his numbers will go up if Machen comes up empty, he still loses? LMAO

    A vote for Gray in the primary is really a vote for Catania in the general. Not my first choice, but I bet you and the other Gray supporters hate that inevitability a whole lot more than I do.

    Wait, so Catania will be able to shore up his previous support of Mitt Romney (the antichrist to many DC residents) and somehow convince these same voters who didn't support his last effort...to elect him as Mayor?

    Sillyman Brown-Moten is that you?

  28. #28

    Well I'm neither an Evans staffer nor am I a supporter, but I am a long a time Ward 4 resident who will not vote for Bowser for all the reasons stated in comment #23. When she was an ANC she didn't give a damn about her constituents and as a councilmember she is selectively responsive. Even worse than being a dud, she's a snob. In general, none of those sitting council members on the ballot are impressive to me as mayoral candidates.

  29. #29

    **posted earlier and "awaiting moderation", so I'll try this again**

    Well I'm neither an Evans staffer nor am I a supported, but I am a long-time Ward 4 resident who will not vote for Bowser for all the reasons stated in comment #23. When she was an ANC she didn't give a damn about her constituents, and as a councilmember she is selectively responsive. Even worse than being a dud, she's a snob. In general, none of those sitting council members on the ballot are impressive to me as mayoral candidates.

  30. #30

    MAYOR GRAY IS LEADING IN A WASH POST POLL (ACTUALLY DOUBLING UP ON CLOSEST CONTENDER) THAT I'M SURE DIDN'T COVER HIS PRIMARY DEMOGRAPHIC AND WILLY EARL IS MINIMIZING IT IN HIS HEADLINE.

    ALL YOU HATERS STILL DON'T GET IT!

    THEN YOU GOT MY BOY DREZ WITH HIS WACK PROPAGANDA ABOUT 3/4 OF FOLK WILL NOT VOTE FOR MAYOR GRAY AND ATTEMPTING TO EQUATE A VOTE FOR MAYOR GRAY IN THE PRIMARY IS A VOTE FOR GAYTANIA IN THE GENERAL ELECTION.

    THIS IS NOT LAUGHABLE. ACTUALLY THAT SHIT IS BORDERLINE INSANITY AND IS SO FUCKING UNBELIEVABLE I WISH FOLK WOULD ACTUALLY BELIEVE IT. YEAH VOTE FOR MAYOR GRAY IN THE PRIMARY SO A WHITE, CARPETBAGGING, REPUBLICAN, GAYMAN (WITH NO CHILDREN ADOPTED OR OTHERWISE) WILL RUN AGAINST A BLACK, STALWART, NATIVE WASHINGTONIAN, SUCCESSFUL, DEMOCRATIC MAYOR.

    LETS EXAM GAYTANIA CHANCES FOR A SECOND SHALL WE:
    1. THIS BAMMA IS HOPING THAT THE CENSUS IS RIGHT (ITS ACTUALLY NOT) AND WHITE FOLK ARE MAJORITY IN THE CITY AND THAT EVERY ONE OF THEM WILL VOTE FOR HIM. +1 FOR GAYTANIA

    2. HE ALSO IS HOPING THAT ENOUGH GAY FOLK WILL REWARD HIM FOR MARRIAGE FREEDOM BILL (THAT HE KEPT OFF BALLOT & BACKDOORED THROUGH). +1 FOR GAYTANIA

    3. THE CHUMP IS HOPING THAT ENOUGH PARENTS WILL LISTEN TO HIS BULLSHIT THAT HE CHAIRS EDUCATION COMMITTEE AND WANTS WHAT IS BEST FOR CHILDREN BUT DOESN'T KNOW EXACTLY WHAT ALL THE WHILE BELITTLING A HIGH SCHOOL UNTIL AN ASTUTE STUDENT PUTS HIS ASS IN ITS PLACE. -1 FOR GAYTANIA

    4. HE HOPES TO EXPLAIN AWAY THE DOUBLE LIFE HE WAS LIVING WITH DC GOV’T COUNCIL AND ONE OF THOSE MOST REWARDED COMPANIES OF DC GOVT CONTRACTS IN RECENT HISTORY. -1 FOR GAYTANIA

    5. HE HAS THE UNMITIGATED GALL TO ACTUALLY BELIEVE HE WILL WIN A GENERAL ELECTION WITH ALL HIS DRAWBACKS WHEN NO DEMOCRAT HAS LOST A GENERAL ELECTION FOR MAYOR IN LIKE EVER. -1 FOR GAYTANIA

    AS I PONDER WHILE I PLUCK KEYBOARD I JUST CAME TO THE REALIZATION DREZ THAT I LIKE YOUR WAY THINKING. EVERYBODY VOTE FOR MAYOR GRAY.
    REMEMBER A VOTE FOR MAYOR GRAY IS A VOTE FOR GAYTANIA!

    YO DAVID CATANIA IN THE WORDS OF IVAN DRAGO
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tweb2TBoxT4

    ONE CITEE!

  31. #31

    Prediction: VINCENT GRAY will win reelection in April and Nov.

    Dark Horse JACK EVANS will become CHAIR by winning in the general election.

    GRAY-EVANS will be a very successful and effective working partnership.

    GRAY as Mayor and Evans as Chairman.

  32. #32

    Double like on the Gray and Evans idea. Evans will certainly have the money to run as an independent. Evans is known and liked by DC's black leadership.

    I can see it happening.

  33. #33

    Why is bowser even running? Can someone tell us what she has done for DC?

  34. #34

    Which of the candidates for mayor have kids in DC public schools?

    Which take public transportation to work?

  35. #35

    All of them had their kids in private schools.

  36. #36

    You go brother or sister corky....most Fentyholics live in a bubble.

  37. #37

    As best I can tell, Mendelson is the only one with a child in public school. In looking at it, John Settles, running for at-large, is the only one with kids in DCPS. That alone should be a reason to support him. All of these people are making these decisions in a vacuum.

  38. #38

    What about Evans, orange, bowser and wells, DCGUY.

  39. Jack and the Giant
    #39

    Evans has his kids in private school. Orange are adults. Wells unknown. bowser unknown.

  40. #40

    Bowser is dating Joshua Lopez. Chez Billy is one of their date spots. He also takes her to Havana Village in AM.

  41. #41

    To my knowledge, neither Bowser or Wells have kids.

  42. #42

    What have Bowser done in ward 4 absolute nothing. I if was not for Gray we would not have the Walmart that we desperately need it. But go down Georgia Avenue and it look like a complete rack. Gray will win again :) he have my vote.

  43. #43

    "Dark Horse JACK EVANS will become CHAIR by winning in the general election."

    Sorry, Charlie.

    As I said to your sock puppet in an earlier post: Evans will NOT, I repeat NOT, give up his part-time day job at Patton Boggs, to become Council Chair, a requirement if he wins election.

  44. #44

    An observations about the poll is in order. The number of Undecideds in the poll is comparatively large. 11% of respondents said that they supported No One, and 12% said that they had No Opinion. So, 23% were effectively Undecided.

    That means that it is way too early to try to predict the outcome of the Democratic Primary. A lot can happen between now and April 1st, the final day of voting.

    That leads to a second noteworthy observation. This race could very well be decided by the US Attorney, Ronald Machen. If Machen's team indicts Gray before March 31st, Gray will likely lose.

    If Machen indicts Gray after April 1st but before September 1st, Machen will look like he delayed the indictment in order to help Gray's re-election bid.

    So, what does this mean for Gray's Team? It means that Gray's Team should focus on getting its voters to the polls during early Voting, which begins March 17th.

    What does this mean for Machen? If Machen thinks that he might indict Gray, then he should make that announcement soon.

  45. #45

    The undecideds are probably undecided because they want to be on a winning side. After this poll perhaps the undecideds will decide.

    There is certainly enough infomation out there about the known candidates. The lesser known candidates, especially the Iraqi born Shalall, should fold up their tents and just go home. And take Machem with them.

    Jim A, you sound like an informed and enlightened individual. Your "If Machen 'thinks' he might indict Gray..." is a very interesting remark. "THINK??????" That is something he should have figured out a long time ago.

    The man has absolutely nothing on Gray and he probably can't get anything solid on Thompson. Otherwise he would have KNOWN & DONE, not 'THINK' regarding indictments of anybody.

    I'm have no knowledge of the law beyond what I read and I have a hard time understanding some of that; but wasn't it stated somewhere that the Supreme Court says what Thompson did was not illegal? And didn't he do the same thing for Hillary's campaign?

    Yes, I know about the double standard, but has it become so blantant that we now accept that as the norm?

  46. #46

    The POst poll had an interesting result that the Post reporters and everyone else failed to notice. The real winner was None of the Above, which beat Mayor Gray 26% to 24%.

    The Post hid it by breaking the NOTA vote up into "no one," "other," "no opinion," subcategories that themselves often outpolled most of the field. But added together they beat them all, including Mayor Gray.

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