Loose Lips

Poll: David Grosso Within Striking Distance of Michael Brown

Poll: David Grosso Within Striking Distance of Michael Brown

At-Large Councilmember Michael Brown has only a narrow five percentage point lead against largely unknown challenger David Grosso, according to a new poll commissioned by Washington City Paper and The Kojo Nnamdi Show.

The poll shows 26 percent of likely voters plan to vote for Brown, while 21 percent say they are with Grosso. A full 32 percent are still undecided. The poll purposely did not ask about Councilmember Vincent Orange, who has already won the Democratic primary and is considered a shoe-in to win one of the two open at-large seats in next month's election. Both Brown and Grosso are registered as independents; one of the seats must go to a non-Democrat. The results for the other challengers:

Republican Mary Brooks Beatty: 9 percent

Statehood Green candidate Ann Wilcox: 5 percent

Independent A.J. Cooper: 7 percent

Independent Leon Swain: 1 percent

The margin of error for the poll, which was conducted by Public Policy Polling, is 2.8 percent. The survey was conducted Oct. 12-14 and surveyed 1,222 likely voters in the District. Do note that the last time LL's bosses hired this polling company, they predicted that Vince Gray would beat Adrian Fenty by 11 points. Gray beat Fenty by 10 points.

Given the margin of error, Brown and Grosso are essentially in a statistical tie. If that surprises you, given the fact that Brown is the well-known son of former Secretary of Commerce Ron Brown while Grosso is a little-known former council aide, you probably aren't alone. It appears the steady stream of negative news following Brown, particularly the missing $113,000 in campaign funds, has taken a toll on Brown's chances for re-election. LL will have a greater breakdown of the poll numbers and the possible explanations behind those figures next week.

The poll shows a similar geographic and racial split to the ones that have appeared in other recent D.C. elections. Grosso's winning white voters 39-10 (with 29 percent undecided), while Brown is winning black voters 43-7 (also with 29 percent undecided). Grosso's doing best in Ward 2 (where he gets 25 percent), Ward 3 (26 percent), and Ward 6 (37 percent), while Brown is strongest in Ward 4 (28 percent), Ward 5 (44 percent), Ward 7 (39 percent), and Ward 8 (46 percent).

Brown says he's "pleased I'm in the lead" but questioned whether the poll was an accurate reflection because of Orange's absence.

Grosso says the fact that he's within striking distance with Brown represents a "huge victory," and he's confident he can close the gap between now and the election.

Meanwhile, Grosso also picked up the Washington Post's endorsement this morning, along with former D.C. Taxicab Commission Chairman Leon Swain.

The City Paper/Kojo Nnamdi Show poll also showed President Barack Obama handily beating Mitt Romney in the race for D.C.'s three electoral votes, 88 percent to 8 percent.

Photo by Darrow Montgomery

  • NE John

    I hear eggs cracking

  • Stephon

    MB,
    Handle your business homey! You must be doing something well to attract all these "haters". I need to raise my game to get at least 1-2 haters a week myself. As a matter of fact, I believe this Grasso dude is a "felon" I could be wrong, but I don't think so...
    Steph

  • Ward 2+2

    Brown will win.

    Grasso is clown and why Lightfoot ,Wells etc. would waste time supporting this guy. That is laughable.

    The Post endorsed Swain?? LOL. Why? Because he went undercover??

  • LivableStaggerable

    Wells supports Grosso because Ambrose would never forgive him if he didn't. Remmeber half of Wells support is from HER loyal Hill voters. Wells better look out cause Grosso is far superiour in all aspects.

    Eitherway, Brown will win and Grosso will run and win in the special.

  • NE John

    enemy? haters? get real people, and simmer down.

  • TM

    "Eitherway, Brown will win and Grosso will run and win in the special."

    But that will be open to a Dem candidate. Aren't there any Dems waiting in the wings (including, god forbid, Anita Bonds)?

  • Drez

    Grosso and Swain it is than.

  • RT

    Michael Brown is the worst.

  • What?

    TM, yes. The scuttle is that Anita is positioning herself to get the position on a temp basis and then run.

  • Pollo

    I'm confused, this poll included the Presidential election, but it didn't bother to ask about Orange because it assumed that he would win?

  • DC Native

    Got to hand it to Grosso. He has a potentially winning strategy: Forget the primary and run as an independent, use the copious material out there to cut Brown down rather than building yourself up and get a couple of key endorsements to make yourself legit. It could work.

  • tntdc

    Bullet Vote. In DC that's whenever we can vote for 2 but want to make sure one gets elected. Casting a single vote then counts twice as much.

  • DCPolitical

    The math is off; add up all the percentages and you get 101%. I'd say that is within the margin of error...

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  • Mousetrapper

    I know Leon Swain, (Ronald Reagan life saver during assassination attempt in DC when he was a cop) and he is no 'Michael Brown' (assassin of his own destructive character and DC voters luv dude for it if he gets reelected)and I trust Leon.

  • Tom

    You guys let PPP swindle you for your money! Without accounting for Orange and taking into account that the ratio of people varies by Ward (many people don't use both votes). This is a badly done poll!

  • Elle

    So stupid you didn't include Orange in the poll; I'm a proud Dem, and there's NO WAY I'm voting for that sleaze bag.

  • tony

    I hate to say it...but I told you so. lol!

  • tony

    I believe that Vincent Orange and Michael Brown will eventually win. But, Mr. Grosso could very well pull off a big upset. This is real.

    Mr. Brown is particularly vulnerable because Mr. AJ Cooper could take just enough votes away from him in his strongest wards which will essentially hand the election over to Mr. Grosso. Mr. Grosso can run the numbers up very high in the white wards, and its very well possible that Mr. Brown may be undercut just enough by Mr. Cooper east of the river that Mr. Grosso would win via a split vote.

    And just to remind you, this is the same way Phil Mendleson first got elected.

    Mr. Brown get out the vote effort must be almost flawless but he can do it.

    Hopefully, Mr. Brown and Mr. Orange can hold down their home turfs.

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  • ToTheContrary

    I'll support whomever the WP and CP doesn't endorse.

  • Sally

    Not including VO in a poll makes this poll useless.

  • Lexus Variance

    Why, oh why, do DC voters continue to vote-in the incumbents when it is clear that they are inept in their own finances and with other personal ethics, and not let a challenger begin to make changes in this town? Grosso smoked marijuana in his early twenties...is that a problem? Who didn't do that in their twenties? Come on people...Michael Brown is currently not paying his bills, not paying his parking and moving violation tickets, which results in his driving without a DL for (recent) years? He has conned another minority out of his business, he and his partners owe the Verizon Center hundreds of thousands of dollars, etc.? What is with these "tired" and not-so-bright DC voters?

  • Ward 6 Voter

    Grosso has no presence east of the Anacostia River in Wards 7 and 8 and that will hurt him in a heavy turnout presidential election. Contrary to what passes for political knowledge, a Wells endorsement has limited benefits for Grosso and may well be the kiss of death in some areas of Capitol Hill.

    On November 6 I will vote for Grosso and Beatty and then in the special election in 2013 (to fill Mendelson's seat) for Grosso.

  • StrangeFruit

    @ Ward 6 Voter,

    A Washington Post and City Paper endorsement is the true kiss of death-- just ask Fenty and Sekou.

  • Mike Madden

    @ Sally:

    VO is almost certain to win one seat. So we wanted to poll who would come in second.

  • WARD4NDC

    I voted this morning for A.J. Cooper and David Grosso at Judiciary Square. I wouldn't vote for Michael Brown and Vincent Bullfrog Orange if they were the last people on the planet earth.

  • DCpeoplewhothink

    Now, folks do not forget about MBrown, who should never be compared to his father, who is looking down with complete disgrace these facts:

    1) Man left his Black beautiful wife and children for a caucasian women. Black women take a major offense to the departure of any so-call man leaving his family for whatever their outside interests may be.

    2) Allowed the Workforce Investment Act to be lead by a caucasian, who remains clueless which have served to allowed grants to be awarded w/o strong and substantiated supports vs those dis-allowed. WIC permits a competitive bidder to serve on the board, and receive these federal dollars managed by DC with all the public scrutiny are city still have yet resolved, and this contractor has low performance data reported by the Department of Employment Services.

    3) Brown stole the vision of Miller's Copying Service, as he mislead them by sharing then he was an attorney, which was later found to be untrue,amd had a copying service business operating in place of the Miller's Copying Service at the Washington Convention Center.
    ...Please reference the DC Superior Court on this matter.

    4) Brown has been outstanding with rental payments for years, as he courted other womem like Cherlita Whiting at the Rittenhouse that remains on 16th Street NW.
    ... Please reference the DC Superior Court on this matter,

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