Gray Campaign Projections Way Off East of the River
LL just received a batch of internal documents from Mayor Vince Gray's 2010 campaign that show not even Gray's aides were expecting the high levels of support he got in some parts of the District for his successful bid to defeat former Mayor Adrian Fenty.
The campaign set a goal of winning 32,701 votes in Wards 5, 7, and 8, the predominantly African-American wards that made the difference in that race and the last two D.C. Council at-large elections. But Gray won 39,180 votes in those wards, surpassing his organization's goal by 17 percent.
The documents, entitled "Gray for Mayor Second Half Ward Action Goals," don't make clear who made them or when. But LL was still interested to read them now, two years after the race, because federal authorities are alleging that an-off-the books shadow campaign helped Gray get elected through a well-financed get-out-the-vote push that several sources say focused east of the Anacostia River in Wards 7 and 8. (Here's Gray campaign Ward 8 coordinator Bernadette Tolson in the Washington Times last month: "We knew there was another campaign.") The campaign surpassed its goals in those wards by more than 5,000 votes, getting 26 percent more support there than the campaign projected, the documents show.
Was the boost the result of bad projections, a shadow effort, or something else? LL doesn't know. The campaign was also way off in projecting how many votes it would get in the mostly white Ward 3 (maybe that Mary Cheh endorsement didn't help as much as aides hoped?). And of course, the fact that the official campaign projections appeared to undercount the support Gray would get might back up Gray's insistence that his organization didn't know anything about the shadow campaign.
Anyhow, here's the breakdown by ward:
And here are the documents:
Photo by Darrow Montgomery