On the way out? (Lydia DePillis)

Fitwi "John" Tekeste has operated his Municipal Deli in the Reeves Center on U Street for the last 20 years. And he's pretty sure that the city's recent move to end that run is just revenge by outgoing Fenty officials.

"It's kind of political. The problem is, I support Mr. Gray," he says, surrounded by papers in a partitioned office at the back of the huge space. "So they got upset with me. When they lost, they try to kick me out."

The Department of Real Estate Services, on the other hand, says that they issued a notice to quit on December 21–a month after then-director Robin Eve Jasper announced her departure–because Tekeste is $345,044.88 in arrears on rent payments since 2000. The rent has been unbelievably low, coming out to about $12 per square foot for the 2,689-square-foot space, which is less than a third of market rate.

"As the Department of Real Estate Services works to minimize costs, we can no longer justify providing valuable retail space at Reeves to select businesses for free or minimal rent," the notice reads.  The Municipal Deli's lease was up in April, and DRES now plans to issue a new solicitation for tenants, which Tekeste may answer along with anyone else.

But Tekeste says things are more complicated. Regarding the gaps in his payment history, he says had been granted a partial abatement in rent by the Williams administration for performing renovations on his space, which stalled when Adrian Fenty was elected. In 2009, he says he struck a verbal agreement with DRES officials–who work eight floors up–to not pay rent while he was re-doing his electrical systems.

It's possible that Tekeste is a victim of historically incompetent management at the Reeves Center, which allowed him to go a decade without warning him of issues with his rent, giving a new administration cause to kick him out just by finally enforcing the rules–as of February 2, DRES isn't buying Tekeste's protestations, reiterating that he must leave by Feburary 21.

Patrons have started a support campaign with a notice on the deli counter, but this one might be a lost cause.

Expect more of this. (Darrow Montgomery)

2010 was a big year for development in the District.

Capital markets unfroze, allowing a slew of stalled projects to break ground. Large empty spaces in the architecturally uninspired NoMa and Capitol Riverfront business improvement districts finally started to fill out. A Web-savvy smart growth constituency became a force in planning and politics, and car-centric suburbs awoke to the need for walkability, density, and transit. Meanwhile, a once-popular mayor went down in part because of a sense that he was building too fast and consulting too little with the people affected.

D.C. might have lost its chance at a future World Cup in 2010, but it won the undisputed title of the nation’s fastest growing, most dynamic urban center. We’re No. 1 in job creation and real estate values. All of that has sent cranes rising around the city, and sets D.C. up for a crackerjack 2011—even if a slowdown in city-subsidized building projects takes the edge off a bit.

So what’s on deck for the District this year? Let’s break it down.

For flying dirt, look to Ward 7:

Mayor Vince Gray’s home base will get going in a big way in 2011. Skyland Town Center, a massive mall and condo development at the corner of Good Hope Road SE and Alabama Avenue, made it through the zoning process last summer. If ongoing legal challenges get resolved, demolition could begin by the end of the year. Meanwhile, senior housing and townhouses will kick off the 15.5-acre Parkside development. And Donatelli Development and Blue Skye construction are expected to start work on a 473-unit residential and retail complex at Minnesota Avenue SE and Benning Road SE this spring.

Getting District real estate off the books:

The pace of construction of city facilities like recreation centers, schools, and libraries will probably let up, both because there’s just barely enough money to keep the lights on these days, and because Gray’s priorities are more centered around getting D.C. residents employed than getting concrete in the ground. Nonetheless, there are still a slew of District properties that will likely either be sold to developers or move forward as public-private partnerships.

• In the last weeks of his administration, Adrian Fenty recommended that the landmarked Franklin School on 13th and K streets NW be sold to a private developer. Though a number of advocacy groups want the deteriorating building to be redeveloped for low-income housing, a social services facility, or educational use—on the campaign trail, Gray expressed a preference for the University of the District of Columbia Law School—it’s unclear where 20-odd million dollars would come from to do that. Selling the building to a boutique hotelier might be the only way to finance its renovation (although with the number of hotels already in the works around the city, the business case for another one seems shaky).

• The historic white-brick Stevens School on 21st Street NW between K and L streets, is back in play after community groups got the Fenty administration to yank the building from a private developer that had previously been cleared to renovate it as multifamily housing. Some preferred Don Peebles’s proposal to turn it into yet another luxury hotel, but the latest buzz favors a charter school, a case that will be strengthened by the D.C. Council’s recent vote to give charters the first crack at all school buildings the District decides to unload.

• Speaking of charter schools: The council will also have to decide whether to follow through with a Fenty-backed plan to lease the J.F. Cook School on P Street NW near North Capitol Street to a partnership of the alternative education non-profit YouthBuild and the Latin American Youth Center, which plans to put 47 apartments on the top floor for at-risk youth. Some community members have protested, but with the group’s financing nearly in place and a clear need for transitional youth facilities in the city, the council may plug its ears and let the plan move forward anyway.

• The city will offer a request for proposals for St. Elizabeths East Campus, which is supposed to be transformed into offices and housing for middle-income folks. The proposal will be crafted to help a developer get a chunk of federal funds for sustainable community development, but considering they’re already plowing $3.4 billion into the Department of Homeland Security across the street, there may not be much cash left.

• Plans for the McMillan Sand Filtration Site will hit the Zoning Commission and Historic Preservation Review Board, but the big question remains whether the city will come up with enough money—estimated at $60 million, likely doled out in chunks—to help keep the project moving.

• There will be some re-jiggering of the map at Walter Reed Army Medical Center, where the federal General Services Administration has decided it doesn’t need to keep a full 30 acres after all. That could free up more valuable Georgia Avenue frontage for the District to play with, but also make for more meetings and votes to decide what to do with the Walter Reed site.

• The D.C. Housing Authority is set to finish a number of renovations at housing projects in LeDroit Park and Washington Highlands, and is hoping for another HOPE VI award at Highland Additions. That would mean more mixed-income housing there, along the lines of the Capper/Carrollsburg buildings near the ballpark.

• The Fenty administration ran out the clock on Hill East, where neighbors have been waiting for the contract on the 67-acre development to go to a team led by Gray buddy William C. Smith. The developer plans a heavily residential mix on the site. Gray may decide to break the logjam, or he may let it lie until more funds become available.

Shakeup at the Historic Preservation Review Board:

Five of the nine seats on the board that reviews historically significant projects are set to expire this year, giving the new mayor the chance to reward staunch supporters from more traditionalist groups like the Committee of 100, Capitol Hill Restoration Society, and Dupont Circle Conservancy. Meanwhile, the office–now with a Facebook page!–will formulate a new five-year plan that will focus more on outreach, reflecting chairwoman Catherine Buell’s push to get neighborhoods not so far concerned with historic preservation more involved.

In the Wilson Building:

• Ward 5 Councilmember Harry Thomas Jr., newly elevated to the chairmanship of the Committee on Economic Development, won’t fight particularly hard for conscientious neighborhood planning over big box development.

• It’s going to be a lot harder to land public incentives for development projects, after the backlash against a wave of reluctantly-approved tax abatements at the end of the 2010 D.C. Council session—particularly a $46 million deal for a luxury hotel in Adams Morgan. In the new age of fiscal austerity, At-Large Councilmember Michael A. Brown’s proposal to develop a way to comprehensively and systematically vet all those giveaways may gain some traction.

• Closing a $400 million budget hole will be tremendously painful, since there’s not room in many public agencies to cut: Building inspectors? Police officers? Trash pickup? Emergency rental assistance? Basic city services spared this time around could face reductions come fall, if Gray and the council don’t pass some significant tax increases.

• Gray could set up a redevelopment authority like those in Baltimore and Pittsburgh, consolidating real estate functions at several agencies to bring land into productive use.

In your houses:

• Inventory of homes for sale is really low in popular D.C. neighborhoods like Brookland, Shaw, and Columbia Heights, while most condo and townhouse projects in the works won’t deliver until 2012 or later. That means continued high prices—and pressure on the rental market, as people defer buying and stick to apartments.

• This could be the year the District’s most long-running listings, like the $29.5 million Evermay Estate on 28th Street NW in Georgetown, finally sell—although if they do, I’m betting on some Middle Eastern oil magnate, rather than the kinds of American businessmen and diplomats who’ve owned it historically.

• Sales of multifamily buildings will likely continue at a quick clip, but since city money isn’t available to help assist tenant purchases, more of them could be the kind of creative financing arrangements where a third-party buyer agrees with tenants to buy the building and promises certain protections or improvements.

• Foreclosures of single-family homes will slow down, since recent legislation mandating mediation gives owners every chance in the world to hang on to their houses. At the same time, foreclosures on multifamily buildings—which already started in 2010—could increase, meaning banks become landlords until they manage to sell off the units. Turnover of vacant and blighted properties will also increase, since a new 10 percent tax rate makes it more expensive to hang on to them for long periods of time.

In your neighborhood:

• A few sparks have already flown in neighborhoods targeted for one of the District’s five allowed medical marijuana dispensaries. Expect flare-ups to continue. No community will likely welcome pot shops with open arms, but after the first is established somewhere—perhaps even a high-income, low-crime area like Georgetown, which also has a pawnshop—fear of the unknown will wear off.

• After MidCity’s successful effort to change elements of its zoning overlay—which restricted the number of bars and restaurants that could operate along 14th and U streets NW—the Office of Planning will likely entertain requests from other neighborhoods, like Barracks Row and Cleveland Park, to revisit outdated regulations that have stifled their growth.

• Walmart’s march will continue apace. The Ward 6 store will probably be the first to break ground, since it won’t have to go through extensive city review and hasn’t encountered significant resistance from the neighbors. The three others may take longer to get their approvals, but barring unforeseen changes of heart by developers or councilmembers, they’ll get there eventually.

For the next week, these gentlemen have everything under control. (Lydia DePillis)

This morning was D.C.'s first press conference to address a snowstorm of epic proportions. When they scheduled it yesterday–"Fenty Administration to Announce Snow Team Mobilization", the release trumpeted–between six and ten inches were expected, so I thought I'd stop by on my last bike ride before drifts of whitish crud made two-wheeled travel impossible for weeks on end.

Upon arriving at the Snow Dome, on Gallatin Street NE, the parking lot was rumbling with giant trucks heading out to dump greenish salt on roads all over the city. Mayor Adrian Fenty and the directors of the Departments of Public Works and Transportation were on hand to reassure the public, via WTOP and Channel 7, that everything–unlike last winter–was under control. Since last year, the agencies have started pre-treating roads, and have ward captains as well as zone captains to coordinate the snow response. Drivers can even train in an improved virtual reality simulator that vibrates when you hit "potholes."

A couple hours later, the winter weather advisory was canceled, and expected snowfall downgraded to less than three inches. Not before we'd refreshed weather pages millions of times over, though.

Snowpocalypse or not, this morning may have been the current administration's last weather-related press conference, after doing 30 or so last season. In the spirit of transparency, I will expect no fewer than 50 from the next.

• $2,374,000 in security and janitorial services for municipal buildings. Heads up SEIU!
• $500,000 from ABRA reimbursable detail program: Fewer cops on rowdy streetcorners after hours.
• $300,000 from the Low Income Energy Assistance Program, which helps poor families pay for heat in the winter.
• $689,000 from the Renewable Energy Incentive Program, which helps people put solar panels on their houses.
• $300,000 from tree planting.
• $808,000 from alley repaving.
• $1,091,000 from repaving local roads.
• $300,000 from pedestrian safety enhancements.
• $4,691,000 from postponing implementation of the Healthy Schools Act.
• $300,000 from healthy grocery initiatives from the Department of Small and Local Business Development.
• $1,595,000 from commercial revitalization initiatives, like storefront renovations.
• $40,000 in postage at Office of Planning (they spend $40,000 on postage?)
• $38,000 from the Office of Planning's zoning map maintenance and development project, which makes this reporter saddest of all.

Tuesday morning marked a starchy celebration on Irving Street NW in Columbia Heights: The grand opening of IHOP’s 1,500th location, complete with a dancing pancake, free short stacks of pancakes, and a Washington Monument shaped out of...you get the picture. Inside, IHOP execs visiting from California for the occasion congregated in the back room, while D.C. politicians wore royal blue IHOP cardigans and were presented with commemorative spatulas before digging into their complimentary breakfast.

It’s only fitting that IHOP should be fêting the locals. The owners are, after all, benefiting from $46.9 million in tax increment financing the city earmarked to build the DCUSA shopping complex in 2006. Developer Grid Properties agreed to set aside 15,000 square feet for small, local, minority-owned businesses, which would get an approximately 30 percent discount on rent in those spaces.

Finding those tenants was left up to the non-profit Development Corporation of Columbia Heights. Four years later, exactly two businesses have taken the deal: IHOP, and Señor Chicken, the third location of a Peruvian rotisserie place. It’s not for lack of interest; DCCH’s president and CEO Robert Moore says around 65 small businesses asked about the spaces. Usually because of financing issues, none of them worked out—the closest was another locally owned franchise of Quizno’s. (Meanwhile, some small businesses DCCH helped place in the nearby Tivoli building didn’t make it).

IHOP, on the other hand, kept cruising. Jackson Investment Company, a small residential real estate outfit that had signed a three-store deal with IHOP, first heard about the location in 2007. The partnership of a father and two brothers was an attractive candidate for a number of reasons—African American, Ward 8-based, retired police and military. But what DCCH liked most was the attribute small business incentives are typically set up to avoid: They were part of an international brand that helped the store get off the ground and will make it harder to fail.

“All the new businesses that you see are franchises,” says Moore. “That’s a stronger way, and it’s a safer way for people to invest.”

—

One morning last week, franchise owner Tyoka Jackson ambles out onto the restaurant floor in a track suit—a habit left over from 12 years in the National Football League—and lowers his considerable bulk onto a cushioned bench. He’d spent most of his time at the Columbia Heights location over the last few weeks, overseeing build-out and training, and was anxious to know how the new store is perceived.

“What’s the buzz?” he asks. “People are saying it’s gonna bring an ‘element.’” Jackson reads the local blogs, which have been pretty much split down the middle on the prospect of a downmarket diner on Irving Street. “When did IHOP become a hot spot for gang members and criminals?” he wonders.

That’s the thing about being a franchise, for better and for worse: People bring their own impressions to it, and for many, it’s just another chain in a complex already bursting with brands. In some ways, the Jacksons’ IHOP enterprise is a small business. They’ve put in the $1 million for construction, made hiring decisions, and will be the ones to lose their shirts if the place fails.

But the Jacksons have a few advantages an independent business could never claim. They get expert business consulting courtesy of the mothership, pooled television advertising, and supplies from a nationwide sourcing cooperative shared with corporate sister Applebees. Recipe development and product design are outsourced to IHOP’s labs in Glendale, Calif.

The last advantage lies in not being an independent business: IHOP is a known quantity.

“Having a sign that says Jackson’s Pancakes is different from putting a sign up that says IHOP,” Jackson explains. “That is a level of comfort for some people.”

Even with all that assistance, Jackson says he couldn’t have afforded market rate rents in DCUSA. Which raises the question: When a sure-fire franchise can qualify for a mandated “small business” set-aside, why would a developer ever go for an actual independent entrepreneur? Ward 1 Councilmember Jim Graham says he’s been trying to lure IHOP since 2002, when he proposed a location at 10th and U streets NW. He doesn’t see a substantive difference between a franchise like the Jacksons’ and something homegrown, and has been entirely sanguine about other chains opening on his turf.

The local business community, predictably, looks at things a little differently. At an October launch party for the new website of non-profit advocacy group Think Local First D.C., Graham put himself in for an awkward moment when—right after D.C. Council Chairman-elect Kwame Brown sang the praises of independents—he talked about how great it was that IHOP would be opening in DCUSA the next month.

That didn’t impress Constantine Stavropoulos, owner of popular hangout spots Open City, Tryst, and the Diner. The successful restaurateur says he never heard of any outreach to established entrepreneurs from DCCH about the DCUSA spot—even though developers are banging down his door to put his next location in their ground-level retail space.

Neither, for that matter, did the Tivoli North Business Association, which represents small businesses north of Park Road. Nor did the Mount Pleasant Business Association. If DCCH was trying to find an excellent non-franchise tenant for that space, it was keeping a pretty good secret.

—

One of the groups happiest about IHOP’s new location in Columbia Heights? IHOP itself. If the performance of DCUSA’s other anchor tenants is any indication, the Columbia Heights IHOP should also be a high performer, which feeds back into the corporate coffers. On top of a $40,000 franchise fee, 4.5 percent of Jackson’s net sales goes straight to Glendale (he pays another 3 percent for regional advertising).

On Monday, CEO Jean Birch sits drinking coffee at a corner booth with Patrick Lenow, communications director for IHOP’s parent company, DineEquity Inc. Corporate executives don’t always attend store openings, but the 1,500th was a special occasion.

“This is a big milestone,” Birch says. “We are the 20th largest restaurant chain in the country. It’s a big deal to us.”

Though it’s up to the franchisee to find financing for each new store, IHOP headquarters helps along the way, and signs off on each location. Birch says getting a set-aside rent discount was “fairly unique” for her franchises. It’s fairly unique for the District, too—none of the relevant government agencies could think of another instance where a franchise had received a small business incentive. Typically, franchises don’t qualify as Certified Business Enterprises, the designation that gets them preferential treatment on many government contracts and incentive programs.

To listen to everyone involved in the IHOP deal, taking a chance on an independent operator would be an insane risk for a developer. To prove it, Lenow pages through the laminated menu, pointing out some of their regional specials, the relatively low-calorie Simple & Fit menu, and the mixed beef-and-bacon burgers.

“Would an individual entrepreneur bring that same creativity?” Lenow asks, rhetorically. “Trial-and-error is very expensive.”

Got a real-estate tip? Send suggestions to ldepillis@washingtoncitypaper.com. Or call (202) 650-6928.

Photos by Darrow Montgomery

The host committee includes former Office of Planning Director Ellen McCarthy, Ann Hargrove of the Kalorama Citizens Association and Committee of 100, lawyer Andrew Potts, and former Historic Preservation Review Board Members Charles Robertson and Denise Johnson. The last two, when we spoke for a story about new HPRB chair Catherine Buell, were none too happy about Fenty’s appointment of relatively inexperienced boardmembers. Johnson in particular recalled being notified by voicemail a few days before a hearing that her term was up—but that she could serve on any other board she wished.

“If the mayor doesn’t want me on a board that I’m qualified for, why would he want me on a board that I’m not qualified for?” Johnson said. “To me it’s just a blatant slap in the face of what these boards and commissions are supposed to be about."

Sally Berk, the Committee of 100’s point person on Union Station and an expert on pre-World War II firehouses, is hosting the “Victory Feast” at her house on Wyoming Avenue. Her explanation of why she’s so excited about Gray reflects a desire for the kind of respect and attention that Fenty never gave.

"I’ve testified before Gray on several occasions–always, of course, on a topic related to preservation," Berk writes. "Each time, Gray had prepared extensively for the hearing.  He was conversant with the topic, listened attentively, asked incisive questions, made astute comments, and was polite to everyone regardless of her position or comportment.  On one occasion, he was the only councilperson to show up for a hearing that was supposed to be before the Committee of the Whole. On another occasion, I sent him an email a few hours after the hearing, to receive, only a few hours after that, a response—a meaningful, not generic response. Several years later, he recalled one of my testimonies...Regarding preservation issues, I have every reason to believe that Gray knows or is educable about the value of preservation to economic development and to reducing the carbon footprint."

Dil Belay once supported Adrian Fenty, but now he's all in for Gray. (Lydia DePillis)

Back in 2002, Daniel Belayneh started the non-profit Ethiopian Community Services and Development Council because he noticed a clear injustice: Two homeless Ethiopian immigrants had frozen to death in the street, and nobody noticed or cared. When a Hispanic man was found dead under similar circumstances, he says, the tragedy made the newspapers and attracted attention from politicians.

Eight years later, he feels like Ethiopians are receiving the same treatment from the administration of Mayor Adrian Fenty. Belayneh started a homeless shelter for down-on-their-luck African immigrants, but had to shut it down last year after expected city funding didn’t come through. He invited Fenty to attend a ribbon cutting for a new free clinic his organization had started, but the mayor didn’t show up.

Belayneh says ECSDC represents Ethiopians in D.C., helping new immigrants become law-abiding, productive citizens. But he’s never once been able to get so much as a meeting with Fenty. And now, though his organization is formally non-political, he’s ready for someone else to run things at the Wilson Building.

“We need somebody who listens to us now in office, to answer our questions. We don’t need somebody sitting there and ignoring our calls,” Belayneh says, with consternation. “I’m telling you, can you imagine, I live in Washington, I am in charge of 80,000 people in D.C., they deny me access to his office? I’m telling you, it’s just unbelievable!”

The Ethiopian community has been a rising cultural and economic force for decades now—9th Street NW restaurateur Tutu Belay’s Ethiopian Yellow Pages for local businesses, which started out 17 years ago at 80 pages, now weighs in at over 1,000. Centered around 9th and U streets NW, the community has become the most visible ethnic presence in the surrounding area, with other clusters of businesses in Adams Morgan, Petworth and along the Maryland border near Silver Spring. But they haven’t thrown their weight around politically, many still hesitant about opposing authorities after leaving their country to avoid political persecution (Belayneh himself was a member of the constitutional assembly of Ethiopia before he was jailed for protesting the government). There’s no Ethiopian PAC, no caucus, no official mayoral forum.

This year, that started to change. Over the last few months, Ethiopians have been hosting fundraisers, canvassing door to door, and spreading the word in churches—almost all on behalf of challenger Vincent Gray. Like much of the rest of the campaign, things could have been different for Adrian Fenty, if only he had paid his respects.

—-

Of course, within the Ethiopian business world, the fiercest energy to defeat Fenty comes from a group of people who, by and large, can’t even vote in D.C.: Cab drivers, who were outraged two years ago by the switch from a zone-based fare system to a meter system that they say reduced their income by some 30 percent. Most cabbies live in Virginia and Maryland, but that hasn’t stopped them from electioneering for all they’re worth. (They don’t tend to dwell much on the fact that it was Congress, not Fenty, that forced the switch from zones; Fenty could have blocked it, and he did set the meter rates, but it wasn’t his idea in the first place.)

Setegn (he only gives one name) is an owner of Allied Cab Company, which employs some 800 mostly-Ethiopian drivers. He supported Fenty in 2006, even giving the candidate free rides in his cab, which scored him an invitation to the inauguration.
“That was the last time,” says Setegn, who does much of his business from the driver’s seat of a bronze-colored van cab. “After that, he closed the door.”

Taxis are just one industry. But because of the heavy concentration of Ethiopians in D.C.’s cab fleet, the zone-to-meter shake-up affected the entire community. Setegn says his drivers eat out at Ethiopian restaurants much less, have stopped paying their rent on time, and stop giving to their churches and organizations. That’s enough to turn far more Ethiopian business owners against Fenty than just the cabdrivers.

“I didn’t pay for the past two years a penny for the Ethiopian community,” Setegn says. “They keep asking us, ‘Do this, do that.’ We try our best.”

In 2008, a few Ethiopians in the taxi industry tried one way of playing politics to better their situation, allegedly attempting to bribe the D.C. Taxicab Commission chairman for new licenses. The ensuing federal investigation also swept up an aide to Ward 1 Councilmember Jim Graham.

The vast majority of cabbies, however, are taking a more respectable route, cutting checks in $20 to $30 denominations, which have significantly filled out Gray’s impressive small donor base. Allied Cab has coordinated with the other associations to reach out to anyone who will listen and vote, with a kind of energy and focus that Setegn hasn’t seen in his 10 years owning a company. Though he wouldn’t give specifics, Gray said at a forum in June that he was working with drivers to assuage their grievances.

—

Despite the concrete harms, the biggest reason Ethiopians give for opposing Fenty is more about insult than injury.

Dil Belay, a developer of single family homes in Eckington and Trinidad, has taken the lead in organizing the business community for Gray. He can’t think of one specific problem with the Fenty administration, and hasn’t asked anything in particular of the potential Gray administration, except respect—which the chairman promised, in a series of endorsement interviews.

“Look, right now, I am a volunteer to the Gray campaign,” Belay says, on a break from a stint as a poll watcher at Judiciary Square. “But look, I am a part of the process now. I am a volunteer, I’m not getting paid. I’m not asking for a specific benefit. I am asking for recognition. And I’m getting that.”

Disrespect can manifest itself on the ground level, in the form of discrimination and harassment from lower authorities like police, inspectors, permit officers. Taxi drivers complain of unfair treatment by inspectors, who slap them with $1,000 fines for underinflated tires. Tefera Zewdie, who has owned Dukem restaurant on U Street NW for 13 years, says that even if the problems weren’t originally Fenty’s fault, he hasn’t fixed them.

“If we are a victim of some sort of problem in our business, then we call for help, the police… look at us as if we are the criminals,” says Zewdie, who hosted a fundraiser for Gray at his restaurant. “Every time you speak a foreign language, you have a foreign accent, your case is treated a little bit different than those who are the native Americans. And that inside, that hurts.”

Nowhere are the benefits for a solicitous politician clearer than in Ward 1, where Graham has the adoring loyalty of many in the Ethiopian community. Several businesses helped coordinate his trip to their native land in 2004, and he’s been returning the favor with prompt attention to their needs ever since.

For the Ethiopian Community Service and Development Center, he showed up on the scene with supportive words the morning a fire devastated their original building on Georgia Avenue, and has landed earmarks for operational costs.

“When we have some issues, there is no bureaucracy, he responds on the spot,” Belayneh says. “Honestly, I need Jim Graham to continue in office. He is a great man. If you were in my shoes, you have somebody who is doing the job, responds to your needs, encourages you, and help you do good things for your people, we need multiple Jim Grahams in the council chambers.”

The last time the Ethiopian community mobilized for something in the D.C. Council, back in 2005, they were also just looking for recognition. Businesses and cultural organizations asked that the area around 9th and U streets be officially designated “Little Ethiopia,” to better attract tourists and market the cluster of restaurants to locals. (If you think about it, they might have a better claim to a title than the now Disney-fied Chinatown, where vaguely Asian script on fast food restaurants looks like a somewhat desperate attempt to hold on to a fading cultural influence.)

Faced with opposition from old-timer African Americans in Shaw, the measure died.

But from a business marketing standpoint, it may not have been necessary. To Tutu Belay, who named her restaurant on 9th Street Little Ethiopia—where she’s hosted fundraisers for Graham and At-Large Councilmember Kwame Brown—the slight had little practical impact. Buses still drop hungry tourists on the corner three days a week, and she recently had a three-hour interview for a CNN International special that will air in October.

Tutu Belay (no relation to the developer) is coy about who she’s voting for mayor; thought her husband Yehune has already donated to Gray, it doesn’t pay for a prominent businessowner to be terribly vocal on either side of a contested race. In that way, she has something in common with her neighbor, Etete owner and parking lot entrepreneur Yared Tesfaye, among the only Ethiopian businessowners to have stayed steadfast for Fenty.

“We just donated because we’re in the business community,” said Tesfaye. “Every time someone’s in the mayor’s office, we donate.”

That kind of dutiful support has its limits, though: Etete doesn’t have a Fenty sign in its window.  CP

OK, that's New York City. But it's a nice visual for what we're talking about here. (Lydia DePillis)

If you want to know who’s probably going to win the mayoral race and why, head on over to City Desk and check out the topline results of our nifty poll with WAMU. But the most intriguing stuff is in the crosstabs. Of interest to this blog are questions about who owns, who rents, who bikes to work, and who can walk where they need to shop. Many of the answers reflect the class and race divide that’s been evident for much of the campaign.

Let's go to the numbers.

Out of our poll respondents, 22 percent rent their homes, and 66 percent own (most of the rest live with a relative who owns their home). But only 56 percent of black people own, compared to 80 percent of whites; 28 percent of blacks rent, compared to 13 percent of whites. There’s also some gender inequality here, though it’s less pronounced: 25 percent of women rent, compared to 18 percent of guys; 63 percent of women own their homes, compared to 70 percent of guys.

Politically, you can see where this is going: 76 percent of people who support Mayor Adrian Fenty own their homes, vs. 60 percent of Vince Gray supporters. Twenty-nine percent of Gray voters rent; the number is half as high for Fenty voters.

OK, bikes: Sadly, only eight percent of all our respondents—or members of their immediate family—have ridden bikes to work three or more times! Poor showing, D.C. Thirteen percent of Fenty voters are bike riders, vs. three percent for Gray.

And now, the “walkability” question, which has become an issue in the Ward 6 race. Out of our respondents, 40 percent felt they could do most of their shopping within an easy walk of their homes. But the number is only 29 percent for black people, compared to 54 percent of whites. Those numbers are almost exactly the same when you match up the candidates: 53 percent of Fenty voters and 34 percent of Gray voters can get what they need within walking distance.

So, can we conclude that the 2010 campaign narrative of predominantly white, wealthy, smart-growth-loving bike riders voting for Fenty is true? Well, not completely. But let’s put it this way: The results sure don’t disprove that narrative either.

The development, which looked like it was moving forward when the Nehemiah Shopping Center was demolished last year, is supposed to be a 255-unit apartment building with ground-floor retail designed by Shalom Baranes architects and built by Texas-based UDR. But that's a $130 million proposition, and as Urbanturf explored yesterday, banks are still leery of lending for these kinds of big residential projects (14W across the street is still looking for dollars too). On the other hand, Archstone just landed a $151 million loan for a 469-unit project in NoMa, so maybe there's money out there to be had.

Anyway, has something happened recently to suggest the project will actually get built soon? According to Jim Graham's office: Nope.

"There's going to be some trees put up and some grass put down," says spokesman Brian Debose. "That's it."

Furthermore, DeBose says the request for the sign came from the office of Mayor Adrian Fenty. The Deputy Mayor for Planning and Economic Development's spokesman Jose Sousa says that would be news to him–the project is a completely private deal, so the city wouldn't be involved. But signs informing residents that the Mayor is personally responsible for various development projects have been going up around the city, including a particularly ostentatious one at Bruce Monroe Park.

Sousa says the DMPED placards with Fenty and Deputy Mayor Valerie Santos' names on them were created to let people know whose jurisdiction each bit of land falls under–sure would be nice if they contained actual information about what the plans were for the site, like in Seattle–and the Bruce Monroe sign went up to make sure residents know the park is open for business. But it's hard not to read a desire for free campaign advertising as well.

(Darrow Montgomery)

It’s a pretty commonly accepted principle in the real estate business: You buy as much house as you can afford. And then, unless you’re wealthy enough to support tens of thousands of dollars a year on your child’s education before they even fill out a college application, you buy the best school district you can afford, too.

In no American region is that more true than the Washington suburbs, where parents go to great lengths to get their kids into the best public school districts. One realtor related a request from a pregnant client who wanted to find a house in a Montgomery County district with the high school she planned for the unborn child to attend 14 years later. In Loudoun County, one district’s sale prices are consistently inflated because the local high school has the best football team in the state, and parents will pay anything to have their promising boys eligible to play there.

That wasn’t always the case with the public schools in the District itself, which mobile, education-minded parents would move to Maryland or Virginia to avoid (or, if they stayed in D.C., pay their way out of).

“For the District of Columbia, it was less of an issue a few years ago, when the schools were just routinely just written off,” says Elizabeth Blakeslee, a real estate agent with Coldwell Banker. “People either moved when their kids were five or six, or if they were lucky enough to send them to private schools, then that was fine.”

Then, says Blakeslee, came Mayor Anthony Williams, with his increased focus on schools. And then public schools Chancellor Michelle Rhee, and her relentless drive for results.

Now, every realtor can tick off the names of the hot elementary schools: Mann, Murch, Janney, Key, Lafayette, Eaton, Oyster. Because of fair housing laws passed in response to redlining, realtors are strictly forbidden from offering their clients advice about which ones are best. But they don’t need to: Like any consumer good, parents can go comparison shopping for schools on rating sites, message boards, and real estate listing services, which are now matching up homes for sale with test scores and reviews of local schools. And they do. They talk to principals and PTA presidents and poll their friends.

“We have a highly educated buying population in D.C., and they value their schools greatly. They do their research, they study up, and they find the specific district that they want to be in,” says real estate agent Skip Singleton. “If they find a better house in another district, they’re not interested.”

On the flip side, of course, are the areas of the city where land is still cheap—Anacostia River Realty’s Darrin Davis says that the schools east of the river aren’t good enough for house hunters to make any distinctions, and there aren’t any families buying there anyway. But if the schools got better, all the single people moving in might just stay and buy bigger houses, which could be the economic engine Wards 7 and 8 need.

All of which—as DCPS contemplates revamping its assignment policies and geographic boundaries—makes Rhee one of the most powerful people in D.C. real estate. In Upper Northwest neighborhoods where schools have long had good reputations, enrollment is soaring this year, and real estate prices have stayed high as well. Elsewhere, homeowners who never used to dream of sending their kids to local schools are giving them a second chance. Meanwhile, parents who can’t afford to buy in the ritzier districts are wondering when—and whether—Rhee’s reforms will pay off for schools where gentrification only recently arrived.

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In a city where education never used to matter much to the real estate market—because so few public schools were considered good enough to be a draw—this all adds up to a big change. Enrollment for sought-after schools in Upper Northwest is off the charts for the school year that started Monday. Janney and Murch are taking in over more than 500 students, up from 444 and 480 respectively last year. Key Elementary is looking at 375 students, up 32; Mann expects 280, up from 269. And on down the list.

Though the education is free, most parents paid a premium for their kids to enjoy it.

With the exception of Barnard Elementary in Petworth, all 10 of the elementary schools that rate a perfect 10 at GreatSchools.org—a non-profit that ranks schools on the basis of test scores—are located in the five ZIP codes with the highest average tax assessments in the District. High-performing schools are a large reason why houses in those areas have still sold like hotcakes even during the recession, realtors say; while properties across the city can sit on the market for months before finding buyers, houses in American University Park and Chevy Chase get snapped up within days.

But the phenomenon isn’t totally limited to tony Ward 3 neighborhoods, where the schools have been considered acceptable (at least) for decades. Public schools in Dupont Circle, Mount Pleasant, and Capitol Hill are getting good buzz lately, and incoming parents are starting to look for homes in those districts too.

“We have had a renaissance,” boasts Ward 6 Councilmember Tommy Wells in a video featured on his campaign website. “Just to see the excitement of the realtors who are so happy with me, because now people say, not just ‘are we in the boundaries for the cluster,’ but ‘are we in the boundary for Brent, are we in the boundary for Maury, are we in the boundary for Tyler…Really no other urban area in America has had so many traditional elementary schools come back online as schools of choice in such a concentrated area.”

And it even goes beyond elementary schools. Especially as the economy has made the District’s provision of $10,000 grants toward tuition at public universities a more attractive perk, realtors report that their clients no longer pick up stakes and head for the ’burbs as soon as their kids hit middle school—there’s greater willingness to give the full run of public education a chance.
Realtors think the reforms are helping the market: Every one I talked to said Rhee’s approach was creating optimism about the future of the public schools. And even though the Washington D.C. Association of Realtors endorsed Vincent Gray for mayor, it’s not because of dissatisfaction with the progress of public education.

“We are thrilled by that,” says WDCAR lobbyist Ed Krauze. “We are probably one of the direct beneficiaries of those decisions.”

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That’s all very well and good for those who can buy their way into the best school districts. But there are a number of neighborhoods that are improving faster than their schools can support.

Take Bloomingdale and Brookland, for example, which are in the middle of a baby boom. Local realtor and incoming WDCAR president Suzanne Des Marais has seen more families moving into her home turf of Bloomingdale in the last couple of years than ever before—but it’s in spite of the schools, not because of them.

“I don’t know anybody who sends their kids to school in my neighborhood, which is a little crazy,” says Des Marais, whose 12-year-old goes to a private school in Takoma Park.

Ward 5 was particularly hard hit by the school closures of 2008, which left thousands of students without a neighborhood school, assigning them to classrooms further away. One parent calls “purple splotch areas,” after how they show up on DCPS’ district map.

“If I were house-hunting, I’d absolutely avoid these closed-school neighborhoods,” e-mails one parent, who lives in the district formerly served by Clark Elementary. “The sheer uncertainty would keep me away. And I worry about our ability to sell our home should we need to.”

In these areas, many parents are obsessively researching charter schools: Instead of Mann, Murch and Lafayette, the names on everyone’s lips are E.L. Haynes, Two Rivers, and Yu Ying. Charter schools enrolled 28,000 students last year—38 percent of D.C.’s total public school population. With no geographical requirements for admission, the growth of charter schools frees parents from the need to live in a certain neighborhood.

But it’s not a foolproof option. It’s harder to get into the most popular charter schools now than it was a few years ago. And at a certain point, they may have to face the lackluster public schools in their own neighborhoods.

Angela Robinson, an attorney who bought a house in Bloomingdale in 2004, moderates a Yahoo! group of about 140 parents of young children in the neighborhood. She says that most moved into the area planning to leave when they had kids, but have since made comfortable lives, and don’t want to retreat to the suburbs. Soon, she’s thinking, a critical mass of parents  might be willing to take a chance collectively, figuring that they could improve the schools by dint of pure involvement.

At that point, the effect of schools on real estate could reverse itself: The strong appeal of D.C.’s neighborhoods would create an imperative to invest in local public schools, whether Rhee’s reforms work or not.

“No one wants to go back to a two-hour-a-day commute, not having an interesting place to eat other than Applebee’s,” Robinson says. “It’s going to start hitting us in the next year or so. Oh my god, am I really going to move? Or am I going to deal with the schools that are here?”