Housing Complex

A Demographic Breakdown of the Mayoral Primary

Thanks,

Thanks, wealthy and employed people!

If only the neighborhoods with the most children had turned out to vote in last week's Democratic mayoral primary, Vince Gray would be cruising to a second term. But Muriel Bowser came away the winner after dominating the areas with the lowest poverty and unemployment rates. Meanwhile, Jack Evans and Tommy Wells had their best results in the whitest precincts, while sixth-place finisher Vincent Orange had a decent showing in the neighborhoods with the fewest high-school diplomas.

Thanks to data compiled by the Urban Institute's NeighborhoodInfo DC and crunched by Washington City Paper intern Quinn Kelley, we can explore the correlation between various demographic indicators and voting patterns on the neighborhood level.

The full data set can be downloaded here, but we've assembled a few of the demographic factors, listing the top three and bottom three voting precincts in each category and the top three vote-getters in each of those precincts. (Charts made via Chartbuilder.) Put your data-geek hats on and enjoy:

Percentage of residents who are children, 2010

Precinct-118-Ward-8-Fort-Stanton-37-children-vote_chartbuilder

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

Change in population, 2000-2010

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.6

Percentage of residents who are white non-Hispanic, 2010

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.5

3.6

Percentage of residents who are Hispanic, 2010

4.1

4.2

4.3

4.4

4.5

4.6

Percentage of births to teen mothers, 2011

5.1

5.2

5.3

5.4

5.5

5.6

Poverty rate, 2007-2011

6.1

6.2

6.3

6.4

6.5

6.6

Unemployment rate, 2007-2011

7.1

7.2

7.3

7.4

7.5

7.6

Percentage of people 25 and older without a high-school diploma, 2007-2011

8.1

8.2

8.3

8.4

8.5

8.6

Change in average family income, 2000 to 2007-2011

9.1

9.2

9.3

9.4

9.5

9.6

Violent crimes per 1,000 residents, 2011

10.1

10.2

10.3

10.4

10.5

10.6

Homeownership rate, 2007-2011

11.1

11.2

11.3

11.4

11.5

11.6

Photo by Aaron Wiener

  • bm

    60% poverty rate in East Foggy Bottom?

  • http://twitter.com/kcivey KCIvey

    Not only a 60% poverty rate, but average family income dropped by 100% (that is, dropped to zero). I think there's a problem with the statistics.

  • logandude

    Has to do with how GW students are included in the statistics - a bunch of undergrads with no jobs while in school (and Daddy's money not included in their income) can make your precinct look very poor and underemployed

  • Pop M

    My problem is fundamental to relying on percentages of voters. That completely leaves out any consideration of turn out effect. If Ward 8, Precinct 118 has the highest percentage of children, it really matters if they had a big turn out or no one turned out. In fact the most recent primary really reflects the different turn out effects. In Gray's base of Wards 5, 7, and 8, turn out was incredibly off and low. He generated only about a 1/3rd of the vote totals he ran up against Fenty in the primary he won four years ago. In some of Bowser's strongest areas, Ward 2, 3, and 4, the turn out was off but far closer to 2010 rates. In Ward 3 alone out of 12k+ votes cast, Bowser ramped up a 6,500 vote margin over Gray. Gray, with lower turn out, could not come close to offsetting that with east of the river vote margins.

  • dno

    Interesting, thanks. Perhaps most interesting is that the violent crime rate (emphasis on rate) is higher on U Street than in Barry Farm/Anacostia.

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  • MBG

    Every time DC poverty stats are mapped the university neighborhoods pop out. Perhaps more of a nuanced/multifaceted approach would help.

  • MBG

    Of course the elephant in the room with this presentation is that it tells you nothing about those who _actually_ voted. Are the voters typical or atypical of the average resident of their precinct?

  • RBG225

    Does the homeownership rate 2007-2011 statistic cited here reflect the INCREASE in homeownership in that 5 year period, or the TOTAL PERCENTAGE of homeowners in those precincts during that period?

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