But for the record, here are my predictions anyway. And tune in at 8:30 when, give or take some DVR-shifting, I'll be live-blogging the entire ceremony. Or at least for as long as my cold medicine holds out.

BEST PICTURE
WALL*E. Not nominated? The Dark Knight. Sigh! How about The Wrestler? OK, I'll stop. It's gonna be Slumdog Millionaire, though between the five that were chosen I loved Milk the most.

BEST ACTOR
I'd love to see Mickey Rourke get this, but Sean Penn's performance as Harvey Milk was so completely transformative, it's gotta be recognized.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Please. (In this usage, "please" is defined as "Heath Ledger.")

BEST ACTRESS
I'm going with Kate Winslet, though her speech better include shout-outs to the makeup crew and her nipples for help making her turn remotely remarkable in The Reader.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz has the buzz, but c'mon, she could be passionate and sensuous in her sleep. Would be nice if D.C. native Taraji P. Henson got it, but my guess is Viola Davis for her brief role in Doubt. The Academy loves those incisive knock-outs.

BEST DIRECTOR
I'm torn. My gut says it'll go to Danny Boyle in a Slumdog lovefest. But I wouldn't be surprised if David Fincher won for his technically proficient handling of Benjamin Button.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
WALL*E would be a nice upset, and Frozen River and In Bruges were great stories. but I'm thinking this is where Milk will get its love.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Slumdog.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Please. (In this usage, "please" is defined as "WALL*E.")

BEST ART DIRECTION and CINEMATOGRAPHY
Both to The Dark Knight.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Period pieces = Oscar. The Duchess.

BEST DOCUMENTARY
Man on Wire.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Total blind guess, but I'm going with The Witness – From the Balcony of Room 306.

BEST FILM EDITING
Slumdog.

BEST FOREIGN FILM
I've only seen two of the nominees, but I can't imagine a doc more imaginative and affecting than Waltz With Bashir.

ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP
Ben Button.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Slumdog.

BEST SONG
The popular opinion is that the two Slumdog noms will split the vote. But really, have you heard anything more catchy in a movie this year than Jai Ho? Sorry, Peter Gabriel, but Down to Earth is kind of a snooze.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Presto was adorable, the Academy doesn't really do adorable. Going with La Maison en Petits Cubes.

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
No idea, but Auf der Strecke seems to be getting the praise.

BEST SOUND EDITING and BEST SOUND MIXING
Considering it's nearly dialogue-free yet still the most engaging film of last year, WALL*E's gotta win both.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Benjamin Button, because if you're honest about it, the film's strongest characteristic is its looks.

Then suddenly it's Oscar night, and you're left shrugging at all the opening-monologue jokes because you chose to spend your weekends with Paul Blart and warring brides instead of watching Brad Pitt age backward.

It doesn't have to happen again. AMC Entertainment is offering its annual Best Picture crash-course on Sat., Feb. 21, a five-film marathon that for $30 grants you a daylong pass, a "souvenir lanyard," and a bottomless bucket o' popcorn.

So slack all you want if you really feel up to catching all the Academy's good-but-not-great anointed ones in a single sitting. (Apologies to Milk and Slumdog Millionaire, in my opinion the only films that deserve such accolades.)

The schedule below is the same for every theater, which this year includes Loews Georgetown 14, AMC Hoffman Center 22, AMC Potomac Mills 18, Loews Rio Cinemas 18, AMC Owings Mills 17, and AMC Tyson's Corner 16. Advance tickets can be purchased at AMC Theatres.

Milk
10:30 a.m.

The Reader
1:05 p.m.

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
3:45 p.m.

Slumdog Millionaire
7:15 p.m.

Frost/Nixon
9:45 p.m.

Actually, I don't have a whole lot more to say:

8) I'm flabbergasted that The Curious Case of Benjamin Button received 13 (!) nominations, while the superior and far more engaging Gran Torino got nothing.

9) I think Milk and Slumdog Millionaire are the only films that belong in the Best Picture category.

10) I love me some Amy Adams, but she could have nailed her minor Doubt performance while drunk on the blood of Christ.

So it looks like the Feb. 22 telecast will be another long night of predictable winners and people who shouldn't be there.

Speaking of which, I don't know how I missed this announcement, but: Hugh Jackman as host? Really?

I'm not saying we need to go back to the days of Billy Crystal — or, shudder, Whoopi Goldberg — but the Oscars require navigation by someone who can quickly take the wind out of its sails. (Hey, my metaphors match.) Pretty dresses — and faces, nothing against you, Hugh — aren't quite enough.

But don't think I'll miss one second of it anyway.

I'm not a violent person. But my temper usually hovers somewhere between Frank Grimes-frustration and Incredible Hulk-fury when I go to a public screening and people won't shut up. It distracts me, it affects my mood, and therefore it can't help but affect my reviews.

And if I'm actually paying to see something off-duty? Forget it. I glare, I shush, I sometimes walk out, knowing I can probably find the movie online. I take great pains to strategize which showing at what theater might be the quietest, and I'm inevitably disappointed. (Hints: Weekday matinees are obviously best, and Landmark at any time is usually pretty safe.)

Thank God I don't carry a weapon: At a Philadelphia theater on Christmas Day, someone popped a cap in a gabber's ass. (Well, technically, arm.) I'm not at all shocked that the incident occurred. I'm a little surprised that it happened at a showing of...The Curious Case of Benjamin Button?

According to CNN.com:

James Joseph Cialella, 29, was charged with attempted murder, aggravated assault and weapons violations, a police report said.

Cialella told the family sitting in front of him in the theater on Christmas Day to be quiet, police said.

An argument ensued while others at the Riverview Movie Theatre watched "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," starring Brad Pitt and Cate Blanchett, The Philadelphia Inquirer reported.

Cialella then approached the family from the left side of the aisle and shot the father, who was not identified, as he was standing between Cialella and his family, according to the police report.

It's possible Cialella was also angered by the film itself, thinking: "Best Picture contender? What a joke."

A Curious Case of Schmaltz-Fueled Rage

The Wrestler: NICE
Gran Torino: NICE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: NOT AS NICE AS IT THINKS IT IS
Marley & Me: NAUGHTY
Bedtime Stories: REALLY NAUGHTY
The Reader: BORDERLINE, BUT I'M VOTING NAUGHTY
The Spirit: PRETTY BUT NAUGHTY
Valkyrie: WHO CARES

Look for reviews of The Wrestler, Gran Torino, and Benjamin Button on this site soon, if not already — there's a good chance that, through the magic of the Internet, I'll still be sleeping when this posts.

Ho ho ho, etc.!

The Washington, D.C. Area Film Critics Association today announced its pick of Fox Searchlight's Slumdog Millionaire as Best Film of 2008, additionally awarding it Best Director (Danny Boyle), Best Breakthrough Performance (Dev Patel), and Best Adapted Screenplay (Simon Beaufoy).

Other notable nods include a posthumous Best Supporting Actor win for Heath Ledger, whose creepy, mesmerizing Joker in The Dark Knight more than compensated for Two-Face's limp storyline and Batman's phlegmy growl, and Best Actor going to Mickey Rourke as The Wrestler's charming titular fuck-up.

The rest:

Best Actress: Meryl Streep (Doubt)
Best Supporting Actress: Rosemarie DeWitt (Rachel Getting Married)
Best Original Screenplay: Jenny Lumet (Rachel Getting Married)
Best Animated: WALL-E
Best Documentary: Man on Wire
Best Foreign Film: Let the Right One In
Best Ensemble: Doubt
Best Art Direction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button