The Washington City Paper/Kojo Nnamdi Show public opinion poll—out tomorrow in our dead-tree edition, and soon to be presented in geekily searchable detail on this site—may or may not be right in predicting that Vincent Gray will win next week's Democratic mayoral primary. After all, Team Fenty says their get-out-the-vote game can overcome the biggest deficit.

But one public-opinion loser is already clear: The Washington Redskins. According to the poll, based on an automated survey of 802 registered D.C. Democrats conducted by Public Policy Polling between August 30 and September 1, just 48 percent of those surveyed call the local NFL squad their favorite team. Some 25 percent support some other team, including a full 6 percent who cheer on the hated Dallas Cowboys. (The rest said they didn't have a favorite team.)

Some of this, of course, is a function of D.C.'s fabled transience. Among those surveyed who live within 50 miles of where they went to high school, roughly two-thirds are pro-'Skins. Those who've been in town less than a decade are more likely to support another team than they are to embrace the Burgundy and Gold—which may not be a surprise given the decade that the franchise has had.

African Americans—who are also more likely to be longtime residents—also tend to be more pro-Redskins: 60 percent of black respondents embraced the team, while only 32 percent of white people surveyed call the Redskins their favorite. On the other hand, the Cowboys pulled down a respectable 9 percent in the black community, while they got negligible support from white voters.

For more poll-data fun—including cross-tabs on people who've biked to work, people who've eaten expensive meals, and people who call Marion Barry a hero—check back tomorrow.

The poll, commissioned and released by Ward 1 Councilman Jim Graham’s campaign, pegged Hizzoner’s support among likely Democratic voters in the ward at 43 percent compared to 37 percent for Gray. Dark horse candidate Leo Alexander pulled down 2 percent, while 18 percent of the 300 voters polled said they hadn’t yet made up their minds.

One political consultant—who isn't working for either campaign but wanted anonymity because, well, D.C. can be a small town—spins the numbers as good for Gray. After all, Fenty grew up in Ward 1 and is almost universally known there, but still isn’t reaching the 50 percent benchmark that makes incumbents sleep better at night. Gray, on the other hand, has room to move upwards. (Then again, it's hard to win an election with only 37 percent of the vote.)

Graham, if you’re wondering, pulled down 68 percent of likely voters while his two competitors, Jeff Smith and Bryan Weaver split 15 percent with 17 percent undecided.

"In the new poll, large numbers of District residents and majorities of African Americans see Fenty as not being honest and trustworthy and as disconnected from their problems. Overall, 47 percent of all adults see him as willing to listen to different points of view; 41 percent say he is not."

WaPo writes:

"The numbers stand in stark contrast to how people feel about their city: District residents give higher ratings for their neighborhoods and the quality of key city services than they have at any point in Post polling over the past 20 years.

Residents give broadly positive marks to the police department and the quality of parks and recreation facilities. Most parents continue to see major problems in the city's public schools, but those views have eased noticeably. More than half of residents see the city as heading in the right direction, a significantly more bullish view than before Fenty's 2006 election.

And yet Fenty's approval ratings across a range of specific issues have dived by double digits. Compared with two years ago, Fenty's ratings are up in only one area: reducing crime, with the increase there due almost entirely to white residents. Overall, slightly more than half of residents rate him "excellent" or "good" on reducing crime, an increase of 10 percentage points. Nearly eight in 10 say they feel safe in their neighborhoods."

I wonder what Fenty's numbers would be if he fired a few arrogant officials and actually started having real press conferences. How about it, Mayor Fenty? Why not take a page from your predecessor and have a weekly press conference every Wednesday?

Well, we've got about 11 months before the all-important 2010 District of Columbia primaries. Just enough time, in other words, for candidates to gather some early information on how they stand with the city's electorate.

Which means polls!

Two of which City Desk has gotten some details on over the past couple of days. Details below.

Poll #1
The call starts off with a woman who mouths a line that sounds as if it had come straight from Mayor Adrian M. Fenty: Since the mayor took control of the schools, test scores have gone way up, but we still have a lot of work to do, according to an individual who received the poll this afternoon.

Shortly thereafter comes the question: Would you support Mr. Fenty for re-election? The respondent is asked how strongly or lamely he or she supports or opposes the mayor. "It felt like a push poll, especially with the talk of the schools," says a pollee.

Poll #2
This call appears to come from anti-Fenty interests, as it tests lines of attack against the incumbent. The polling person says something along the lines of: "I'm going to say some statements that opponents of Adrian Fenty are likely to say during the upcoming election. Please answer if these statements would make you much less likely to vote for him, somewhat less likely, or no impact."

The poll then gives this example of such an attack:

"Adrian Fenty only recently moved his kids from private to public school."

Then come the scenarios, in which the polling person asks who you'd favor in a number of races, including Fenty v. D.C. Council Chairman Vince Gray, Fenty v. At-Large Councilmember Kwame Brown, and Fenty v. Unknown Businessman.

This poll, says a source, features 40 to 50 questions and takes around 15 minutes.

DEAR READERS: PLEASE FILL THE COMMENTS SECTION WITH YOUR RECENT POLLING EXPERIENCES!

Photo by Darrow Montgomery