This is your brain.

This is your brain on democracy:

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In which we speak with ANC 1C-03 Commissioner Bryan Weaver about Michael Brown’s basketball skills, David Schwartzman’s uncanny resemblance to Walt Whitman, and the Sarah Palin Disney Movie.

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Throughout the day, Jason Cherkis and I will bring you moving pictures from political hotspots in D.C. and Virginia. Look out for candidate interviews, voter testimonials, and copious b-roll of long, snaking lines at the polls.

Our first vid comes from Iglesia Festival (polling station for precinct 35), where we spoke with Alice Bell.

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LL put several hours of work into this yesterday, so he thought he might as well share it: The Official LL District of Columbia Precinct Guide! [PDF].

It includes 2004 registration and turnout numbers for all 143 city precincts, as well as 2008 registration figures and info on poll locations—all in a handy PDF!

You can thank him later.

LL’s been crunching the numbers all night, trying to figure out whether Carol Schwartz and Patrick Mara have a shot to upend Michael A. Brown for the non-Democratic at-large seat.

LL has come up with three scenarios, based on the level of turnout.

All are based on some assumptions: (1) that undervoting (not casting one or both of your two at-large votes) increases as turnout increases—this is based both on historical performance and the idea that more informed voters are more likely to vote; (2) that Kwame Brown will take 55 percent of the total number of at-large votes—that’s based on historical performance and Brown’s strong campaign this year; (3) that David Schwartzman will take about 7 percent of the vote—based on typical Statehood Green performance since 1996, with recent trends taken into account; and (4) that Dee Hunter and Mark Long together will take about 9 percent of the vote—this is admittedly a seat-of-the-pants figure from LL, based on the historical performance of similar challengers.

1. Turnout matches the 2004 general election, when there was about 60 percent turnout. If that’s the case, and the same rate of undervoting holds, then about 335,000 votes will be cast for at-large candidates. Given the assumptions above, LL projects that the Three Contenders would split 95,000 votes. As few as 32,000 votes (9.6%) could win the race; 38,000 would represent a “safe” 40 percent showing among the three.
2. Turnout slightly increases over 2004, with about 65 percent showing up. In that case, the proportion of undervotes will increase slightly, leaving about 355,000 at-large votes. LL projects that the Three Contenders would split 101,000 votes. As few as 34,000 votes (9.6%) could win the race; 41,000 would represent a “safe” 40 percent showing among the three.
3. Turnout is massive, hitting 300,000 raw votes and a 70 percent turnout. In such a case, undervoting is likely to be much more common, but 375,000 votes will likely be cast for at-large seats. LL projects that the Three Contenders would split 105,000 votes. As few as 35,000 votes (9.3%) could win the race; 42,000 would represent a “safe” 40 percent showing among the three.

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Free pencil from guess-who, 10 percent off cards Diner/Tryst/Open City
Goodwill Baptist Church, 1862 Kalorama Road NW
Ward 1, Precinct 25

Washington City Paper is breaking all sorts of longstanding traditions to endorse Arthur Delaney for Advisory Neighborhood Commission seat 6B08.

City Paper has never endorsed candidates as an institution, typically leaving that job to crack political reporter Loose Lips. And Loose Lips has never endorsed candidates in advisory neighborhood commission races, considering those pissant offices well below his pay grade.

But just as the Chicago Tribune threw away decades of pro-Republican tradition to endorse Barack Obama this year, City Paper is forced to reexamine its course by the prospect of having a community advocate as talented, as focused, as driven as Arthur Delaney serve the residents of east Capitol Hill. Not endorsing Mr. Delaney would be an unforgivable error of historic proportions.

Mr. Delaney’s singular focus on single-beer sales reflects a preternatural political talent, one that can bring the people of 6B08 together under one principal: Can’t we all just have a beer?

Don’t get us wrong: Mr. Delaney isn’t just a one-beer man. He’s been seen enjoying multiple beers from time to time, on the concrete pad in front of his apartment, as well as at local watering holes such as Tune Inn, Trusty’s, Tune Inn, Capitol Lounge, and Tune Inn.

But Mr. Delaney is a singles man at heart. Like all the residents of 6B08, he is a hard worker—we at Washington City Paper can absolutely testify to his devotion as a freelance journalist (to wit, his willingness to pursue this assignment)—and he deserves to buy a single beer for his refreshment after a long day’s toil, as do we all.

So we must join Mr. Delaney in his cri de coeur: Sometimes, you just want one!

—The Editors

Dear D.C. Republicans,

Washington City Paper wants to spend some time with you on election night. Throwing a party? We want to schmooze. Listening to dirges? We want to hum along. Eating lots of food? We’ll gladly freeload.

What you get: attention. What we get: a sense of satisfaction for having covered both sides.

Email me with your election day whereabouts at mriggs@washcp.com or text me at (407) 962-7043.

And D.C. Republicans–do it soon.

This afternoon Southeast Capitol Hill resident Arthur Delaney kicked off his write-in campaign for a spot on the local advisory neighborhood commission. Delaney, who is me, is campaigning entirely on a pro-single-beers platform for 6B08.

Lately, the local political establishment is united in its insistence that corner stores not sell single cans or bottles of beer and malt liquor. Delaney has two simple questions:

1. What is a person supposed to do if he or she wants a beer but can’t afford a six pack?
2. What if a person just wants one beer?

The answer to these questions is that a person who has ever been or ever will be in either situation must vote for Arthur Delaney in 6B08 tomorrow. Arthur Delaney has the necessary maverick qualities to begin to reverse the nannyish tide that will outlaw single sales in early 2009.

After the jump, more details, plus Arthur Delaney’s first campaign video.

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LL might be the only person in town who actually reads the candidate statements printed in those voter guides [PDF] that the Board of Elections and Ethics mails out to every registered voter in the District. Some statements are weird (”1999: two homeless men sit outside a computer lab pouring champagne they buy every New Year’s Eve,” starts shadow sen hopeful Damien Lincoln Ober’s); some are laughable (Marion Barry’s claim: “I embraced Mayor Fenty’s and Chancellor Rhee’s Educational Reform Movement”); and some, well, are just baffling.

Take Chanda McMahan’s, who in the past year has run for chair of the Ward 8 Democrats, the Democratic nomination for Ward 8 councilmember, and now Ward 8’s spot on the State Board of Education. At an appearance she made at the Gertrude Stein Democratic Club in June, McMahon was, shall LL say, a tad unfocused. Her voter-guide statement does not challenge that impression:

The statement of candidate that declares my information deemed necessary to protect the qualified experiences of/and the integrity for the School Board’s Participation are the 10 years of experience of Teaching in the Public Schools and the priorities which process the stature of qualified participation to support the focus of the school’s mission and accomplishments that defend the appropriate education-with rights to an adequate education.

Now LL knows all of those words but he cannot figure out what the hell this is supposed to mean. Perhaps McMahan is trying to win the linguistics set, and this is some sort of Chomskyan deep-structure mindfuck. Or not.

Feel free to attempt a translation in the comments.

Brilliant, Mike Licht, brilliant.

The blogger over at Notions Capital has a plan to pay at-large council candidate Michael A. Brown back for his incessant phone calls over the past few months:

Call him back . . .

Campaign Office: 202-629-4240
Edwards Angell Palmer & Dodge LLP: 202-478-7383

Fax him . . .

1-866-885-1873

or email him . . . mbrown@eapdlaw.com

with a message like this:

Hello, Michael Brown. This is John Q. Public. I’ll be voting on November 4th, but not for anybody who uses “Robo-Calls.� So next election, don’t use automated phone calls to annoy me and invade my privacy.

How many times should you send the message?

How many times has Michael Brown robo-called you ?

If LL were truly mean, he would post Brown’s cell phone number. You might be able to convince me in the comments.

Shadow Sen. Paul Strauss was arrested for drunk driving on Oct. 1, according to court records.

The arrest took place on the 2000 block of Calvert Street NW, on or near the Duke Ellington Bridge between Woodley Park and Adams Morgan. Records contain few further details regarding the circumstances of the arrest.

Strauss, an attorney by trade, was charged with driving under the influence, driving while intoxicated, and operating while impaired—three offenses with different definitions under District law, yet routinely charged together after drunk-driving arrests. According to the court documents, this is the first time Strauss has been charged with DWI. He is due to be arraigned on Thursday, Nov. 6.

It’s not his first arrest, though. In July 2005, he was detained on a disorderly conduct charge after “confronting officers as they arrested another man,” according to a contemporary account. Regarding that arrest, Strauss told a previous LL, “I was just trying to be helpful,” Strauss says. “I was asking basic questions like ‘Where are you taking him?’”

Strauss, a Democrat, is seeking, and is likely to win, a third six-year term in next Tuesday’s election. LL left a phone message for him last night; Strauss sent a text message in response asking about the nature of the inquiry. LL sent a text message back telling Strauss he was asking about the Oct. 1 arrest. No response came.

Readers may wonder: Why is LL breaking this story a month after the incident in question and days before the election? That’s because LL was informed of the court proceeding by an anonymous tipster on Wednesday. Strauss’ name had been entered into the Superior Court docket system as “STRAVSS,” which would have foiled any earlier attempts at due diligence.

On Tuesday, Ward 7 Councilmember Yvette Alexander told LL that despite the lobbying of colleagues Marion Barry and Harry Thomas Jr., she wouldn’t cross Carol Schwartz by supporting prime challenger Michael A. Brown.

She apparently gave in. Alexander says she plans to join Barry and Thomas tomorrow for a 10:30 a.m. press conference endorsing Brown.

LL heard the news after being invited into Alexander’s Wilson Building office, where she was meeting with Barry and Ward 4 rep Muriel Bowser, who has endorsed Schwartz.

Barry himself related the details of the presser to LL, breaking his vow of silence to City Paper. “I’ll break it for that ’cause it’s too important,” he says.

Bowser walked out and later told LL, “She told me unsolicited two days ago she would never support Michael Brown.”

What happened since Tuesday? Well, for one thing, Alexander’s predecessor and patron Vincent C. Gray came out with a surprise Brown endorsement. Whatever happened, Alexander certainly had quite a change of heart in those 48 hours. She told LL, “I’ve fought too long and hard for the Democratic Party” to support Schwartz, a Republican. “It’s almost like endorsing John McCain….I can’t allow that to happen.”

As for her flipflop, she already begun to pay the price. She showed LL a Post-It note from Schwartz reading, “Shame on you.”

If there’s anyone in town who dislikes at-large council candidate Michael A. Brown more than Adrian Fenty, it’s fellow candidate Dee Hunter.

Today Hunter hit local airwaves with radio ads taking aim at Brown, the perceived front-runner. The ad [MP3] was heard this morning on at least one local radio station, Praise 104.1, countering ads Brown has done in recent days.

Last night, at a candidates’ forum sponsored by various local activist groups, Hunter also took on Brown, quickly answering one of moderator Gloria Minott’s questions so he could use the rest of his time to slam Brown for refusing to pledge to be a full-time councilmember. “Michael Brown wants to maintain his full-time job at a Washington lobbying firm and work on these problems part-time. I find that very arrogant.”

Brown was allowed to respond; he said he disputed Hunter’s facts, before giving his stock answer about how he would ask sitting councilmembers with outside jobs—David Catania, Mary Cheh, Jack Evans—about how they “balance” their responsibilities before making a decision.

Brown cut in: “That doesn’t dispute my facts!”

At an earlier forum, in Ward 6, Hunter had also laid into Brown, catching him giving one position on charter schools to a local union, then giving a contradictory position to the crowd that night.

There will be two more chances for forum fireworks: Tonight at 6:30 p.m. at Ballou Senior High, and tomorrow at 7 p.m. at Rock Creek Baptist Church, 4201 8th St. NW.

It’s been getting lonely in the John A. Wilson Building for At-Large Councilmember Carol Schwartz. Colleagues Vincent C. Gray, Harry Thomas Jr., and (reportedly) Marion Barry have broken with council tradition to endorse Michael A. Brown’s challenge, rather than Schwartz’s write-in bid.

But there’s still a couple of colleagues Schwartz can count on.

One is fellow at-larger Phil Mendelson, who yesterday told LL that he has “no hesitation” in supporting Schwartz. “I always support my colleagues,” he says.

Schwartz is free, he says, to drop his name in campaign literature or in other ways, and he’ll be informing voters of his preference as he visits polling places on Election Day. LL asked if he’d wear a yellow shirt in the process. “I dunno what I’m gonna wear,” he said.

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