City Desk

Poll Shows Adrian Fenty Beating Vincent Gray in Ward 1

A new poll of Ward 1 voters puts Mayor Adrian Fenty 6 points above his challenger, D.C. Council Chairman Vincent Gray.

The poll, commissioned and released by Ward 1 Councilman Jim Graham’s campaign, pegged Hizzoner’s support among likely Democratic voters in the ward at 43 percent compared to 37 percent for Gray. Dark horse candidate Leo Alexander pulled down 2 percent, while 18 percent of the 300 voters polled said they hadn’t yet made up their minds.

One political consultant—who isn't working for either campaign but wanted anonymity because, well, D.C. can be a small town—spins the numbers as good for Gray. After all, Fenty grew up in Ward 1 and is almost universally known there, but still isn’t reaching the 50 percent benchmark that makes incumbents sleep better at night. Gray, on the other hand, has room to move upwards. (Then again, it's hard to win an election with only 37 percent of the vote.)

Graham, if you’re wondering, pulled down 68 percent of likely voters while his two competitors, Jeff Smith and Bryan Weaver split 15 percent with 17 percent undecided.

Blog Widget by LinkWithin
  • tformation

    Of course Jim Grahams poll said that. Lol

  • Brahmin

    Welcome Alan!

    I am pleased to see a new Loose Lips. Good luck on your new position. It is a tough one but living in the nations capitol and having the pulse beat of this city is a worthwhile post.

    As for my credential as a strategist they are impeccable and you indeed can win with your 37% of vote. Because what we are talking about is potential vote.

    If Cindy and her friends (41%)are Fenty voters and Troy and his friends are Gray voters (37%) Gray could still win.

    How? Cindy can simply prefer Fenty but not feel any real strong ties to vote for him. Remember the Obama girl--she forget to vote that day. But Troy and his friends volunteer at the office, gave ten dollars and called a few people. Lets say on the potential vote Gray almost maximizes all of his but Fenty did only a little better than half, yes there is where the numbers are a problem for Fenty. Also Fenty is 100% known meaning he is at the height of his potential. The challenger can be introduced to new voters and change their persuasion index.

    This is a concrete indicator of a softening of support in Wards he should be doing strong in. The Fenty camp will forward this story to all their supporters but for those in the know it will raise red flags.

  • http://ABF ABF


  • SuperS

    Anything with Jim Graham in it is suspect! What slime ball.

  • Rick Mangus

    Polls mean nothing, remember "Dewey Defeats Truman"!

  • Truth Hurts

    Well that clinches it, Brahmin (or whoever). Your concerned voter poser comments were fake all along: you do work with/for Gray. How many other monikers do you post under?

  • Truth Hurts

    @ Alan: You and I haven't yet met (as far as I know). But here's some advice anyway. If you expect to be seen as serious and impartial, don't lead with anonymous "political consultants" who "spin the numbers as good for Gray". Paraphrasing Gray: We (you) can do better.

    A year from now, once you've earned some trust, perhaps occassional attribution to anonymous folks will sit better.

  • Korrupt

    The Grahamster's pollsters do it again!