How Frequent is Pedophilia? Jerry Sandusky is just the latest example. How many more are there?

Illustration by Slug Signorino

The Sandusky horror is just the latest in a seemingly endless stream of pedophile scandals. Is there any reliable information on the incidence of these kinds of crimes? —Stan Kaplan

Let’s start with the bright side: There’s no indication sex crimes involving children are more frequent than they used to be. What’s changed is we’re hearing more now about scandals that were previously hushed up. The grim fact remains that the situation was, and is, pretty bad.

The Penn State child sex scandal got a lot of press, as did the revelation of serial child molesters in the Catholic church and the Boy Scouts. You get the impression pedophilia is spreading like wildfire. Is it? Moral panic aside, probably no.

Pedophilia is defined as persistent sexual attraction to children where the perpetrator is at least age 16 and the victim is at least five years younger. As such, it’s a subset of child sex crimes in general, which also include acts between kids of similar age and opportunistic, one-time offenses. Such distinctions may be academic or irrelevant—it’s been estimated nearly 9 in 10 child molesters either meet the criteria for pedophilia at the time of the offense or eventually will.

But let’s not sweat those details. In theory, there should be two ways to get a fix on the prevalence of pedophilia: count the molesters, or count the molestees. Unfortunately, collecting reliable numbers for either is as tricky as it sounds.

Statistics on pedophiles are dubious because cases often come to light only as part of a criminal investigation or during psychological treatment. Studies of any type of sexual behavior based on self-report are unreliable, and surveys of pedophilic tendencies surely are doubly so—this isn’t the kind of thing most people would admit to, even anonymously. Here’s a sampling of the research:

  • A 1989 study of about 200 male college undergrads found 5 percent admitted to masturbating to pictures of children, and 7 percent said they’d have sex with a child if they could get away with it.
  • A 1991 study found 3 percent of some 600 college men reported having had a sexual experience with a child when they were 16 years or older.
  • A 1997 survey of more than 500 college women found 4 percent had at some point had sexual experiences with a child at least five years younger. Just one problem: These women were on average only 12 at the time, meaning we’ve strayed pretty far from pedophilia as usually understood.

We turn to the more important question: How many children do pedophiles victimize? It’s difficult to say—the numbers reported in different studies don’t match up, possibly in part because different types of sexual abuse are often conflated.

For example, a 2007 report on pedophilia from the Mayo Clinic cites a survey of 1,500 Canadian young adults that found nearly a third of the women and a sixth of the men had experienced unwanted sexual contact before they were 17. But the report goes on to say, “Most of the one-time offenses reported by females were committed by another adolescent of similar age.” Is that bad? Absolutely it’s bad. But it’s not pedophilia.

Likewise, a 2010 study says, “There have been marked declines in . . . childhood exposure to violence and abuse from the early 1990s to the recent past,” and as proof gives a long list of indicators, one of which is a 53 percent drop in proven sexual abuse cases.

However, when you dig into the guts of the study, which compares the results of two telephone surveys of violence involving children in 2003 and 2008, you find two things. First, kids’ reports of sexual abuse by adults, as opposed to by other kids, have declined only modestly. Second and perhaps more significant, the incidence of such reports is small, around 0.3 percent.

Reports of other types of abuse, such as flashing and statutory rape, are more common, in the 1 to 3 percent range; arguably some of this qualifies as pedophilia. One percent is a lot when spread across the whole population. But there’s little sign of a massive unrecognized problem.

Given the state of the data, we can only make the following observations. It seems reasonable to say pedophilia is an ineradicable but not especially common impulses that, unlike other forms of sexual and child abuse, has never been widely tolerated. Given greater awareness and more precautions, therefore, one may suppose that, however often pedophilia occurs now, it’ll happen less in the future. That may be wishful thinking. But notwithstanding news reports, there’s no sign it’s happening more.

Have something you need to get straight? Take it up with Cecil at straightdope.com.

Our Readers Say

Two moronic assertions you make in this post are:

==[Paedophilia is] a subset of child sex crimes in general, which also include acts between kids of similar age and opportunistic, one-time offenses.==

Sex acts between kids are not 'crimes'. Nor are they wrong or harmful, in fact they meet an important need to rehearse adult behaviour. Paedophilia is no more a 'subset' of these than it is of any kind of behaviour, as it is a psychological condition.

==Such distinctions may be academic or irrelevant==

To you maybe, but then you neither know or care about the issue, so your moronic opinions on it ARE irrelevant.

==In theory, there should be two ways to get a fix on the prevalence of pedophilia: count the molesters, or count the molestees.==

This is the most moronic statement and also the most harmful myth. Paedophilia is not the same thing as child molesting. Most paedophiles do not molest children. Many child molesters are not paedophiles. Of course all this is academic, unless you happen to have a reason to care about any of it, in which case it becomes very real.

Straight dope? I don't think so. Dopey? Absolutely.


It's funny how attitudes change. In the 1970's, sex with barely pubescent girls wasn't really considered pedophilia, it was common. There was even a very short-lived magazine that considered young groupies its' target market: "Star".

Rock stars especially were fond of young girls, & were often photographed in their company. Jimmy Page & Lori (Lightning) Maddox. All the young girls at Rodney's English Disco. Don Henley. I could go on, but you get the picture.

"Many child molesters are not paedophiles."
How is that possible? You consider a normal male a cihld molestor but not a pedophile?
I did not mean to assume that they are all male. Scratch that thought but the question still stands.
Tracey, I am going to assume that Sean means to point out that pedophilia is state of attraction and there is noreason to assume that it usually leads to action. Child molestation might not be based on a persistent attraction, and it may often be an act of rage, sans attraction.

Regarding comments pertaining to the changing attitudes, language may just be becoming imprecise and reactionary rhetoric more persistent. Ephobophilia refers to a preference for mid to late adolescent youth, and even a simple attraction to that age groups does not qualify, as it is more usual than not.

I agree that the problem cannot be addressed effectively if rhetoric is allowed to corrupt our understanding of the trends of behavior.
A very stupid article written by a very stupid man. Pedophilia, the sexual attraction to children in and of itself is not a crime- it is a mental illness. Not all pedophiles molest children, and neither are all child molesters pedophiles (some molest out of opportunism, not out of attraction).

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